Research On The Political Cycle And The Land Transfer Behavior Of Local Governments

In recent years,the important role of institutional environment in economic growth has been widely concerned by economists,and the change of political institutional environment caused by the change of government has become the focus of research.At the same time,for the government,under the dual influence of tax-sharing policy and debt accumulation and maturity of local financing platform,the role of land finance in government financing has become very critical.In view of this,this paper attempts to study the change of land transfer quantity before and after the change of local government from the perspective of political cycle and the number of land transfer by local government.Meanwhile,this paper further explores the impact of residents' income on the number of land transfer by local governments.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017,this paper finds that the amount of land sold before the Party Congress is significantly lower than that after the Party Congress.Also,it is found that with the gradual decline of political uncertainty after the convening of the Party Congress,the amount of land supply increases year by year,that is,the number of land transfers in the first year after the convening of the Party Congress is significantly larger than that in the first year after the convening of the Party Congress,and the amount of supply in the second year is significantly larger than that in the first year after the convening of the Party Congress.By further considering factors of residents' income and purchasing power,it is found that residents' income can positively adjust the strength of relationship between political cycle and land supply.Provinces with high residents' income will impel local governments to further increase the number of land transfers,showing a significant positive correlation.Based on the empirical analysis,this paper finds out the advantages and disadvantages of land transfer quantity under the influence of political cycle,in order to improve the operation mode of land finance from macro and micro levels and promote the smooth operation of the economy.Compared with previous research,the contribution of this paper is mainly reflected as follows: Firstly,previous research only focus on one year before and after Party Congress,while this paper study the characteristic of the changes in the two years before and after Party Congress by fully considering the characteristic of the five-year cycle of Party Congress and the long period of land transfer procedures.Secondly,this paper further depicts the relationship between land transfer and political cycle,and proposes a new perspective to study the issue of land transfer,enriching the whole picture of the political cycle and the number of land transfer.Finally,this paper deeply analyzes how the Party Congress affect land transfer,revealing the institutional roots of land transfer fluctuation and drawing the new conclusion.