Research On Early Warning System Of Corporate Bond Default

With the rapid development of China's bond market,as one of the direct financing methods in the economic market,the role of bonds has become increasingly prominent as an important means of financing.At present,the size of the domestic bond market is larger than that of the stock market.In the international economic downturn period,domestic market economy has entered a new normal stage,the rigid mode of payment is also in the bond market is broken,mass defaults last erupted,default is varied,covers all types of bonds,huge penalty due to breach of contract caused economic circles generally pay attention to and some investors fear.Substantial default behaviors caused by bonds directly cause a large number of economic crises to investors.Therefore,it is of great significance to conduct in-depth research on the early warning system of default events.This paper will be divided into economic crisis,bond defaults as a financial accident,combined with the financial problems at the same time,standing on the position of investors,in view of the enterprise bond default problem caused by the real economic situation and operation situation of research of the system,and to find the existing deficiency,and carries on the summary,to establish a system and comprehensive early warning system of default,which provide help for investors to prevent default behavior.This paper revolves around the development status of domestic securities market,on the basis of the breach of the basic situation,choose the default behavior of 18 a-share listed companies as A case study,from the economic system,the industry model,business planning,financial management,social rating of characteristics on summary and analysis of illegal or more enterprises.Through induction and analysis,this paper established a comprehensive range of default warning system,and select default occurred in a recent period of time the company and has not yet default bond issuers to comparative test,to verify the effectiveness of the early warning system,the test results show that the effective early warning system.Finally,the article puts forward some policy suggestions on the event of default.On the basis of a systematic study of the Harvard Analysis Framework,this paper discusses the main characteristics of bond default behaviors and finally comes to the following conclusions: First,the root cause of default behaviors comes from imperfect corporate governance,and good corporate governance can reduce the probability of corporate bond default.Second,the more unfavorable the industry environment,the higher the probability of bond default.Third,as one of the phenomena of financial crisis,the phenomenon of bond default has the characteristics of stage and process,which is the result of economic crisis and operational crisis.Fourthly,the phenomenon of bond default has certain predictability and regularity,so we can predict the occurrence of bond default through scientific early warning system,so as to reduce the investment loss caused by bond default.