Research On Strategy Of Promoting Risk Early Warning Ability Of Credit Rating Institution

At present,China's economic development is weak,the development of some excess capacity industry has entered a weak state,the performance of the credit market is the frequent occurrence of bond defaults,and occurred in steel,coal and other excess capacity industries.The frequent outbreak of bond defaults will not only cause market turmoil,but also may cause financial crisis.The reason for the increase of debt default is not only because of our economic downturn,but also with China's credit rating agencies risk early warning is not timely and accurate.Therefore,the credit rating agencies to enhance the risk of early warning capacity of social and economic stability and development have far-reaching impact.On the basis of reviewing and combing domestic and foreign literatures,this paper chooses the short-term financing bills of A company in 2015,analyzes the reasons of the failure of the rating agency's risk early warning by analyzing the case development process and the credit rating agencies' This paper introduces the macro-prudential KMV model,and makes an empirical analysis of the credit status of 12 enterprises selected in 6 different industries to verify the applicability of macro-prudential KMV.The results of this paper show that:First,improve the internal management of rating agencies,improve the rating method from the qualitative point of view,from the quantitative aspects of corporate credit risk and default probability will help improve the credit rating agencies risk early warning ability.Second,the improved KMV model can not only measure the probability of default of listed companies can also be measured non-listed companies default probability,and in various industries KMV model is also applicable,credit rating agencies based on default distance and default probability changes can be more Sensitive reaction to the business situation.The results of this study will help our credit rating agencies to quickly and accurately adjust the credit level of enterprises to improve their risk early warning ability.