Investment Risk Analysis And Assessment Model Construction Of Offshore PV Power Generation Projects

Nowadays,as the energy crisis in the world is becoming more and more serious,accelerating the exploitation and utilization of new energy is undoubtedly the most feasible solution.Under this background,China is actively promoting the development of new energy-related industries,with solar photovoltaic power generation as the prominent representative.However,with the continuous expansion of the scale,land-based photovoltaic power generation is showing many drawbacks,including the loss of agricultural land caused by large site areas,the phenomenon of light curtailment caused by long distance from the load center,and the system risk to the grid brought by distributed photovoltaic power.On the contrary,developing offshore photovoltaic power generation projects in China's coastal areas has great advantages in overcoming the above problems.At the same time,it can provide an effective way to optimize the energy structure for the high demand of electricity in economically developed areas,and has a good investment prospect.Considering there are few studies on the investment risk of offshore photovoltaic industry,this paper aims at researching the evaluation index system and the evaluation model,so as to play a theoretical guiding role in the actual operation.Firstly,this paper reviews the research status of offshore photovoltaic power generation and investment risk based on a large number of domestic and foreign literature and other research materials.Then,taking into account the characteristics of offshore photovoltaic power generation,this paper carries out a deep analysis of the risk factors that affect the investment returns of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects and establishes a corresponding index system,including 16 secondary indicators of the economic risk,technical risk,environmental risk and market risk.Following this,this paper constructs an investment risk assessment model based on hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets and group decision making where the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets are used to assign assessment information to indicators,the network analytic hierarchy process is used to determine index weights,the triangular fuzzy number is used to convert index information,the fuzzy induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging operator is used to aggregate opinions of each expert group and the fuzzy synthetic evaluation is used to aggregate information of each index.This model provides an effective method to deal with the fuzzy uncertainty and multi-attribute decision-making of investment risk assessment on offshore photovoltaic power projects.To verify the applicability and validity of the model,a case study is carried out in this paper towards an offshore photovoltaic power project in Ninghai,Zhejiang Province.The results are in line with the actual situation of the project,which proves that the index system and evaluation model constructed in this paper have certain application value.Finally,this paper put forward some response measures for risk management of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects,which provides a reference for investors to carry out reasonable risk control.This paper mainly carries out innovative research from two aspects.Firstly,this paper establishes an investment risk assessment index system which conforms to the actual characteristics of offshore photovoltaic power generation projects,and carries out detailed analysis of each risk factor.Secondly,this paper innovatively combines the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets with the multi-group decision-making,and constructs the corresponding investment risk assessment model,which can better solve the problems of pre-investment information ambiguity,hesitation of expert evaluation opinions,and heterogeneity of expert background and experience.As a result,this paper has strong theoretical value and application value,and can provide a reference for investors to make proper investment decisions.