The Impact And Risk Analysis Of Monetary Policy Adjustment On Stock Market

With the rapid development of the national economy and the continuous improvement of the overall quality of the people,ordinary people have deepened their understanding of the stocks year by year,The status of stock market in economic life has been continuously improved,and the impact of stock price on real economy asset price has been expanding.When the relevant departments supervise the stock market,they will pay more attention to the impact of policy adjustments on the stock market.Therefore,when the relevant departments make policy interventions on the stock market,their primary consideration is the effectiveness of policy adjustments.Moreover,investors will also be concerned about the impact of policy adjustments on the stock market when making investment decisions.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of China's policy adjustments on the stock marketFirstly,according to the effect of monetary policy adjustment on the stock market,the quantitative form of the policy adjustment variables is discussed,and three kinds of quantitative forms are given:0-1 distribution,class normal distribution and asymmetric distribution;Secondly,by adding exogenous variables depicting the influence of policy adjustment in the EGARCH model to study the impact of monetary policy adjustment on the stock market,four models are established:exogenous variables are added only in the mean equation,only added in the variance equation and added to the mean equation and variance equation at the same time,In order to further analyze the impact of portfolio policy adjustment on stock market returns and volatility,a EGARCH model containing exogenous variables representing portfolio adjustment is established.The corresponding parameter estimation method,the significance test method and the corresponding risk estimation method are given.Finally,according to the obtained model,from January 2012 to December 2015,the adjustment of the 8 deposit benchmark interest rate and the adjustment of the 7 deposit reserve ratio on the stock market in China are the empirical research object,and the effects on the income,volatility and risk are studied respectively.