Analysis Of The Influence Of Semi-forced Dividend Policy Based On PSM-DID Method On Firm Value

The image of dividend distribution in China's capital market is characterized by frequent non-small or high-profile distribution.From the perspective of safeguarding the interests of small and medium-sized shareholders,the regulatory authorities have formulated a series of dividend control policies.China's dividend supervision enters the era of “semi-mandatory dividend regulation”.Based on this background,this paper studies the impact of semi-mandatory dividend policy on corporate value.The PSM-DID(Difference in Difference-Propensity Score Matching)method is used to analyze the impact of the semi-mandatory dividend policy on corporate value,and whether there is a “regulatory paradox” in the semi-mandatory dividend policy.The evaluation of the implementation effect of this policy is not only important for the improvement of the dividend policy of listed companies,but also plays an important role in safeguarding the interests of small and medium shareholders,improving corporate value and promoting the healthy development of the capital market.This paper first analyzes the status of refinancing under the background of semi-mandatory dividend policy,the status of dividend distribution and the status quo of enterprise value,and then analyzes the mechanism of semi-mandatory dividend policy affecting corporate value.On this basis,this paper selects 5590 sets of data from SSE A shares in 2004-2016,and uses PSM-DID method to study the impact of semi-mandatory dividend policy on corporate value.This method can effectively avoid the self-selection problem between the control group and the processing group and the unobservable deviation that does not change with time,and can accurately identify the net effect of the semi-mandatory dividend policy on the value of the enterprise.The empirical analysis part of this paper uses Stata12.0 for analysis.Firstly,it expounds the sample design basis,including sample selection and data source,application of research methods,research hypothesis and selection of variables.Secondly,the propensity score estimation is carried out.The Logit model is used to select the appropriate combination and then matched.Finally,the preliminary test,heterogeneity test and mechanism test of the semi-mandatory dividend policy on the enterprise value prove the research hypothesis.The research results show that the semi-mandatory dividend policy reduces the corporate value of listed companies with financing needs.The effect of this policy evaluation is the average policy effect of listed companies with SSE A shares selected in this paper.In addition,after the promulgation of the semi-mandatory dividend policy,the dividend level of listed companies increases,but it doesn't play a positive role in enhancing corporate value.Moreover,the policy is linked to the need for refinancing,resulting in some listed companies that lack funds and financing intentions distorted the company's normal cash flow.The above studies show that there may be a “regulatory paradox” in the semi-mandatory dividend policy,that is,there is no favorable impact on listed companies that reduce dividends.In addition,the impact of this policy on state-owned holding companies is greater than that of private enterprises.The main reason is that the internal ownership of state-owned holding companies is absent and the internal control problems are serious.The company managers may try to meet the refinancing conditions due to the performance needs,so the phenomenon of dividends is more significant.Therefore,the impact of state-owned holding companies is even more significant.China's capital market is still in the status quo of "emerging plus transition".The semi-mandatory dividend policy has its characteristics and necessity,but its drawbacks should also face up.In view of this,listed companies should also further improve the internal profit distribution mechanism.The CSRC should further improve the semi-mandatory dividend policy and enhance the applicability of the dividend policy and strengthen the supervision of the current practice.In summary,the research in this paper provides a reference for the improvement of the relevant theory of semi-mandatory dividend policy,and provides theoretical guidance for the sound regulatory measures of the regulatory authorities.