Research On Corn Import To Solve The Gap Of Corn Production And Demand In China

In recent years,driven by science and technology,China's total corn production,per unit yield is second only to the United States,ranked second in the world.Domestic corn consumption growth rate has exceeded the growth rate of corn production,maize imports will become the norm,corn production and demand gaps appear.Therefore,under the situation of corn production and demand gap,the development strategy of China's corn industry has become a topic of great concern.This article starts with the analysis of the factors affecting China's corn import trade.First of all,on the basis of analyzing the current situation and growth potential of maize production in China,this paper applies the Cxd production function model,the grey forecasting model GM(1,1),and the combination model based on the Cxd function and the grey forecasting model.The corn yield in China during the ten-year period 2018-2027 is predicted.The forecast results show that China's corn yield will continue to increase in the next 10 years,and will reach 370 million tons by 2027.On the basis of analyzing the present situation of corn consumption in China,this paper applies Holt exponential smoothing method and grey method.The forecasting model,based on the combination model of holt exponential smoothing method and grey forecasting model,was used to forecast the corn demand in China.The forecast results show that China's corn demand will continue to increase in the next 10 years,and will reach 377 million tons by 2027.Then,this paper analyzes the feasibility of filling the gap of maize production and demand in the international market.The results show that the international market has a strong supply capacity and supply potential of corn,and China has sufficient capital and policy system.It can provide a great possibility for China to obtain corn in the international market.It can increase the welfare and economy of the exporting country and our country through the import of corn.Finally,according to the research conclusion,put forward the future maize policy suggestion of our country.