| In the context of globalization, climate change, bioenergy development and the continuation of China’s industrialization and urbanization, the supply and demand and trade situation of corn between the world and China has a new change. With the increase of China’s corn imports, the impact of the in-ternational market for Chinese corn will be more obvious, at the same time, and global climate change, the bioenergy development and the adjustment of Chinese agricultural policies will also increase uncer-tainty in.future international corn market. Thus, it’s needed a new understanding of the impact of global climate change, bioenergy development and Chinese agricultural policy on the world corn market from the globalization perspective.The main purpose of this study is to simulate the effects of climate change, bioenergy development and the China’s newest corn policy on corn supply and demand in China, under the background of glob-alization.To achieve the research objectives, this study, build the theoretical framework of the World Corn Model based on the theory of partial equilibrium; comb the context and status of the world’s corn and bio-ethanol, and summarize the world corn trade and bioethanol supply and demand characteristics, and construct the world corn bioethanol supply and demand balance sheets; summarize the existing prob-lems in China’s corn market and the present research on China’s corn outlook; construct the World Corn Model, and describe the composition of the model, calibration algorithm, parameters, calibration, repli-cation, robustness and accuracy; conduct the simulation analysis for three simulated scenario set, im-plement prospect for supply and demand situation of corn in the year of 2020 and 2030, based on the World Corn Model.The main contribution of this study is constructing the World Corn Model with climate change and bio-ethonal modules in a globalization perspective, while simulating the effects of China’s newest corn policy.The process of calibration and replication shows that the program of the World Corn Model is cor-rect and reliable, and can be used to make a median-long term projection. The robustness test of the World Corn Model suggests that the bias of simulation result will be less than 10% when all the param-eters change less than 2.5%, which indicates that the World Corn Model is robust. To further test the accuracy of the World Corn Model, this study compares the simulation values of main variables in the year of 2013 and 2014 with their actural values. Result shows that the MAPEs of 34 varialbles are less than 10, accounting for 55.7% of all the 61 variables; the MAPEs of 46 varialbles are less than 20, ac-counting for 75.4% of all the 61 variables; the mean value of Theil IC of all the variables is 0.19. It in-dicats that the simulation results of the World Corn Model is accurate. Thus, the World Corn Model built in this study can simulate the supply and demand situation of the world and China in the future robustly and accurately.Simulation results of the World Corn Model show that corn price in the world and China will be decline in the future; China still remains a net importer of corn, and the net imports amount may con-tinue to increase in the year of 2020 and 2030, while climate change and government policies will affect China’s corn supply and demand situation in varying degrees. The main conclusions of this study are as follows:First, the median basic simulation scenario shows, in the year of 2020 and 2030, the world corn prices will be 40.78% and 35.70% of 2012, while the corn price in China will be 39.36% and 33.40% of 2012; In 2020 and 2030, China’s corn production will reach 204 million tons and 231 million tons; Chi-na’s demand for corn will reach 216 million tons and 252 million tons; China’s corn net imports in 2020 will reach 12.04 million tons and 20.45 million tons in 2030. With the cancellation of China’s temporary storage policy, China’s corn planting area will reduce 8.019 million hectares compared with the year of 2015, which is significantly higher than the policy target of reducing 3.33 million hectares. Thus, Chi-na’s policy target of agricultural restructure can be met through the market-orented pirce reform.Second, the cancellation of China’s temporary storage policy, destocking measures will further de-press the price of corn, resulting in China’s corn production growth rate is less than demand growth in the future, and the increase in China’s net imports of corn. Futhermore, the control policy in corn pro-cessing as well as the comprehensive policy will limit China’s demand for corn, and ensure the self-sufficiency rate of corn, but may decrease producer surplus.In the future, the world corn prices will likely decline further, resulting in much higher domestic price than foreign corn price, and China may import large quantities of maize. Therefore, on the one hand, existing corn price formation mechanism should be adjusted based on overall consideration of the domestic and international market, and the effects of different price system for China’s food safety should be fully demonstrate. On the other hand, the government should change strategic thinking, de-velop domestic and foreign resources strategy, combine with "the Belt and Road" and other policy ob-jectives to properly and efficiently use the international market. Policy-makers should maintain trans-parency, continuity and feasibility, and on the basis of quantitative analysis, and scientifically prove the effects of mixed policies.
|
PDF Full Text Request