| The rise in housing prices caused by irrational investment demand and the consumption demand caused by normal self-occupation demand have different effects on the economy.The increase in housing prices caused by self-sustaining demand is a natural increase in housing prices,which is harmless to society and sometimes can be beneficial;However,if the main driving force for the rise in housing prices is investment demand,this price increase will make the allocation of social resources improper.Therefore,controlling the housing price growth caused by investment demand is a major economic problem that China needs to solve now.This paper first uses the urban fixed effect model to study whether 273 cities in China show performance or consumption attributes during the period from 2005 to 2013.Then use the fixed variable parameter model to analyze how the properties of housing in 36 cities changed and transferred during the period from the first quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2018.Finally,the state space model is used to analyze the transfer process of Shanghai's housing properties in the 39 quarters from the first quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2018.Through the above model analysis,the preliminary inference is drawn:In the 273 large and medium-sized cities nationwide,the housing market was mainly characterized by investment properties from 2005 to 2013.From different regions,the housing market in the eastern region was dominated by investment attributes,while the housing market in the central and western regions was not obvious.The results of the fixed variable coefficient model estimation show that the investment property and consumption attribute of China's housing are alternate processes.According to the results of Shanghai data analysis,in the 39 quarters from the first quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2018,only three quarters of the housing market were dominated by consumption attributes,and the remaining 36 quarters of the housing market were dominated by investment attributes.The structure of this paper is as follows: Chapter one begins with the development of China's housing reform,tells the development history of China's real estate,discusses the research background of this paper,and summarizes the research process and current research status of Chinese scholars on real estate;The second chapter first explains the meaning of the dual attribute of real estate,then discusses the origin of the dual attribute of real estate from the development history and function of real estate,and finally from the rate of return and volatility differs from that of general commodities and financial investment products in demonstrating the fact that real estate has a dual attribute;The third chapter first distinguishes real estate consumers and investors,then the real estate supply and demand curve is different from the ordinary commodity perspective analysis of the relationship between housing prices and housing demand,and finally from the consumer surplus and heterogeneous consumption The two sides have theoretically deduced the decision of the speculators and consumers to purchase houses;The fourth chapter first uses the urban fixed effect model to study the current dominant property of real estate in China,and uses the same method to study the dominant attributes of the housing market in different regions of China;then use the fixed coefficient model to the consumption property and investment attributes of China's real estate market.The empirical research on the alternate time-space deductive path is carried out.Finally,the state space model is used to study the evolution process of Shanghai real estate dominant attributes in different periods;The fifth chapter expounds the research results of the article,summarizes the important points of the whole article,and puts forward some policy suggestions based on the empirical results. |
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