Demand Forecast And Order Strategy Of The Shearer Wheel

In the case of current tense economic situation and fierce market competition,how to faster and better meet the needs of customers is a topic that has to be studied by each enterprise.The shearer parts have characteristics of high value,long manufacturing period and strong specificity.To meet the needs of customers in time,the coal machinery enterprise needs to establish large inventory for customers to pick up.But it is blind and unscientific to establish storage just according to the historical average usage.It often leads to the situation that the storage may be insufficient or overstocked.Based on the production plan of TD Company,we do the demand forecast of the shearer wheel and also make the order strategy to improve the management level of the company.The demand of the shearer wheel is uncertain,distribution unknown and time-varing.Firstly,the need for research is determined by the analysis on the characteristics of the shearer wheel.Nine relevant factors is confirmed by nominal group technique.Multidimensional time series of variables is created by collecting the data of relevant factors.Secondly,dimension of multidimensional time series is reduced by principal component analysis.It is determined that the first three principal components with cumulative contribution rate of 92.93% are substituted for the original nine related variables Thirdly,the combined forecast model of the ternary cubic polynomial regression and the forecast model of hybrid genetic algorithm–support vector regression are established separately.From the analysis of 2015 demand fit result,the former forecast model is higher than the latter forecast model in mean relative error,mean absolute error and mean square error.Thus the forecast model of hybrid genetic algorithm–support vector regression has a better fitting effect and is more suitable for demand analysis of the shearer wheel.Finally,the demand of the shearer wheel in 2016 is forecasted by using hybrid genetic algorithm–support vector regression.According to the forecast results analysis,the safety margin of 10% is increased based on the original forecast value in order to reduce the goods shortage situation.And then the appropriate order stategy for TD company is made:(1 + 10%)× demand forecasting value-(existing stock quantity-safety stock quantity).