The Application Of Time Series Analysis Method In The Prediction Of The Number Of Scenic Spots

With the advent of the new era of China,tourism,as a comprehensive industry,can not only promote the development of all related industries such as scenic spots,hotels,transportation,insurance,etc.It can even increase employment opportunities to lead people out of poverty.Therefore,we should make a scientific and accurate prediction of the number of tourist attractions,which is of great economic significance for the management of various industries.In this paper,the time series model is used to analyze the tourist numbers of the scenic spots in Dafeng River,which is based on the real data obtained from the Access Control system of scenic spots.The number of scenic spots in Dafeng River is analyzed from the daily cycle,the daily period of three periods,the monthly period of three periods,and the midday time of the month cycle in four different dimensions.In this paper,data are modeled and tested on the basis of time series analysis.A lot of experiments have been done to find the changing rules of the number of tourists.Then,we predict the future number of people,and compare which method can improve the accuracy of the prediction.In this paper,the data experiment of different time dimension model is completed by using Eviews and SAS software.Finally,it is considered that the time series model established by the monthly noon time dimension has better prediction effect.The error of this prediction method is only about 5%,which has certain research value.