Analysis Of The Impact Of Government Implicit Guarantee On The Spread Of City Investment Bond Under Economic Cycle

In the 2017 audit work report,the Audit Commission found that certain financial institutions illegally financed local government financing platforms or companies that actually assumed the financing platform function.Although after the financial work conference was held,the areas involved in the violations increased the awareness of risk prevention and reduced the problem of illegal debts in the region.Although since 2014,the central government has issued opinions to accurately divest the government financing function of the city investment platform and clearly divide the local government debt,City Investment Bond is not a category of local debt.However,as a shareholder background,the investment platform has a relationship with the local government.Whether it really divests the relationship with the local government is worth pondering.Nowadays,in the city investment bonds issued by the city investment platform,whether the unsecured urban investment bonds have divested the government's implicit guarantees and the transmission mechanism of the government's implementation of the regulatory policies on urban investment bonds,this paper conducts empirical research on this.This paper takes the 2009-2017 Sichuan Provincial City Investment Debt as the research object,and mainly discusses the following questions: Before 2014,whether there is implicit guarantee of local government.After 2014,under the continuous tightening of regulatory policies,whether the implicit guarantees of local governments for unsecured urban investment platforms are reduced or even disappeared.Further,this paper examines how regulatory policies affect the implicit guarantee capacity of local governments and ultimately affects the credit spread of unsecured city investment bonds.At the same time,consider the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the credit spread of urban investment in the ?recession? state.First of all,this paper establishes a nonlinear Markov system transfer model MS(2)-AR(1)for the 2009-2017 GDP growth rate,which divides the macroeconomic environment into two states.Secondly,refer to the development history,the introduction policy and the current results of the city investment bonds,and propose and define the strict regulatory policy variables for the first time.A multivariate regression model was established to analyze the factors affecting the credit spread of urban investment bonds,including the implicit guarantee variables of local governments and the operational indicators of urban investment platforms.At the same time,the strict regulatory policy variables and economic cycle state variables are added to the model in the form of dummy variables,and the cross-effects of variables and variables are examined to determine its transmission mechanism.Thirdly,the existence of the heteroscedasticity of the model is repaired by the feasible generalized least squares method(FGLS).Finally,this paper uses the propensity matching score method(PSM)as a supplement to the conclusion,and compares the difference between the guaranteed spreads of secured urban investment bonds and unsecured urban investment bonds before and after strict supervision.After empirical research,the paper draws the conclusions: 1)When the macro economy is in the ?recession period?,the difficulty of financing increases,which is reflected in the larger scale of the issuance of urban investment bonds,and the wider the credit spread.2)The introduction of strict regulatory policies has reduced the implicit guarantee of the Sichuan provincial government for unsecured city investment bonds.3)On the whole,after the introduction of strict regulatory policies,the spreads of bonds with and without guarantees declined,and the spreads of bonds with guaranteed guarantees declined more.