Research On The Impact Of The Withdrawal Of Implicit Government Guarantee On The Credit Spread Of Urban Investment Bonds

In recent years,various policies have been issued to require the government investment and financing platforms to break away from the government credit endorsement,avoid the entanglement of hidden risk relationship between local governments and financing platforms,and break the government's hidden guarantee.Many scholars have paid new attention to the influence of implicit government guarantee on the bond pricing of local government financing platforms.Therefore,starting from the policy background,this paper studies whether the effect of implicit government guarantee on credit spread under the decoupling of financing platform and government credit reaches the effect of the policy.Chooses the city of 2012-2018 at the end of November for debt data,is with credit spreads as the explained variable,implicit government support as the explained variable,and add other variables have an impact on credit spreads on the empirical analysis,in 2015,comparing the data before and after the study of local government's recessive guarantee bond credit spreads on the city's influence whether changes with policy,policy is digested by the market and to achieve the effect of exit.The results show that the influence of local government implicit guarantee on credit spread has not been weakened,and there is still a significant negative correlation,which has not reached the expected effect of the policy,and there is still a reasonable expectation for the government implicit guarantee.Visible,the exit of government implicit assure still needs time to verify.On this basis,this paper further combining with the default cases of " Liu Shi Guo Zi ",first discusses the existence of government's recessive guarantee,and then through the analysis and the default cases of " Liu Shi Guo Zi " are issued in the same month with varieties of bonds,compared with the private enterprise bonds of the same grade,the credit spread of the bonds issued by " Liu Shi Guo Zi " is obviously lower than that of the private enterprises,which can reflect the urban investment attribute advantage of government implicit guarantee of " Liu Shi Guo Zi".At the same time,for bonds issued by the same local government financing platform,the credit spread of "Liu Shi Guo Zi" bonds is large among the same rating subjects due to the weak financial resources of local governments.Finally,this paper summarizes the empirical evidence and cases,and puts forward three constructive Suggestions on the development and standardization of local government financing platforms.