Measurement And Early Warning Of China Systemic Financial Risk

With the development of financial liberalization and globalization,the relationship between China financial system and the world financial system is becoming more and more close,which aggravates the impact of external risk shock on China financial system.At the same time,due to the structural and cyclical problems in China financial system,the systemic financial risks in China continue to accumulate and gradually highlight under the influence of both internal and external factors.In recent years,systemic financial risk has become one of the hot issues concerned by the country.In the first quarter of 2019,the Policy Committee of the Monetary Central Bank of China stressed again: Keep the bottom line that there is no systemic financial risk.Based on the above background,this paper first discusses the definition,characteristics and evolution mechanism of systemic financial risk,and then evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of some current mainstream early warning models.Finally,the KLR signal analysis method is selected to construct the early warning model of systemic financial risk in China.In this paper,the monthly data from January 2007 to December 2017 are selected,the index is screened by principal component analysis,and the structural equation model is used to fit,and the comprehensive index model is constructed to measure the systemic financial risk in China.The correlation analysis was carried out in different periods.Then the modified and screened dimensions and indicators are used to establish the early warning system of systemic financial risk in China by using signal analysis method,and the state and inflection point of financial risk are judged from different dimensions.The results of data analysis show: firstly,the systemic financial risk in China reached the level of "risk" in 2007,and the rest of the years belong to the category of "safety" and "basic safety".It shows that the macro-economy of our country is running in a relatively safe situation.Second,between January 2007 and December2017,the real estate market and the macro-economy were the most similar to the systemic financial risk index.Finally,due to the concealment of the bank market and the high volatility of the bond market,the relevant regulators should pay more attention to it.Finally,from the perspective of the supervision and macro-prudential management of systematic financial institutions,this paper puts forward some relevant policies and suggestions on how to ensure the financial security of our country.