On Credit Risk Management Of China's P2P Online Loan Platform Based On Stress Test Analysis

Nowadays,with the rapid development of China's Internet technology growth,driving the development of Financial industry accelerate to Fintech.Against today's backdrop,a network market with convenient accessibility and strong collaboration features emerged – the P2 P lending platform.As one of the providers of inclusive financial services,P2 P serves as an effective supplement to bank funds,meets the financing needs of more depressed people,expands the scope of financial services,and improves the availability of inclusive financial services.In recent years,the P2 P industry is undoubtedly “standing in the wind”,this wind is not only means the development of the P2 P,but also the risk of theP2 P.The P2 P industry has developed rapidly,and the number of platforms has begun to increase.However,due to the lack of risk management of the platform itself and the frequent vibrations in the domestic and international financial markets,the changes in the macroeconomic environment have brought to the P2 P platform.The huge uncertainty caused the chain effect of other types of risk increase driven by the accumulation of credit risk.And that caused a run on platforms and even face bankruptcies,which will adversely affect the normal financial order.This paper summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars' credit risk management theory and literature on P2 P network lending industry.Firstly,using data analysis to summarizes the current development characteristics of China's P2 P online lending industry.After that,the JiMu platform is taken as the research object.Firstly,identifying the credit risk faced by the platform.Combined with the development history and business model of the platform,the credit risk internally: The internal risk management have drawbacks;the platform interest rate pricing is unreasonable,caused by imperfect information disclosure;macroeconomic downturn;the subjective and objective breach of the borrower.Then,by measuring the credit risk faced by the platform and combining the overdue rate data of the building block,the main variables that have an impact on the overdue rate are selected for multiple regression.The results show that the national housing boom index,industrial added value,M2 growth rate and investor sentiment.The index has an impact on the platform credit risk.Then,by setting a mild,moderate and severe stress scenario,the change of the overdue probability of the building block platform under different economic conditions is measured,and the credit risk of the platform is evaluated.Finally,based on the test results and the operating characteristics of the building block platform,corresponding strategic recommendations are proposed for the platform's credit risk early warning management mode.Make full use of big data risk control in platform risk management.;We must strengthen platform price information disclosure and data sharing to enhance industry transparency.;To improve the relevant legal mechanisms of the industry and strengthen financial supervision;Build a refined and diversified P2 P online loan platform;Continuously improve their risk awareness and conduct stress tests in combination with their own business models.The results of this paper show that comprehensive risk management is very important for the sustainable development of the industry,and it has practical significance for building a comprehensive risk management system for the building block box platform and the P2 P online loan industry.