Research On Risk Analysis And Transformation Development Of Non-Standard Business Of China's Commercial Banks

In recent years,due to the strict supervision of commercial banks,there are many restrictions on the credit line and loan investment,and it is difficult to obtain higher profits through the traditional profit model.As the market competition became more and more fierce,commercial banks began to develop non-standard businesses in order to continue their operations,and then quickly gained market recognition and rapid development.However,the non-standard business itself is the product of “regulatory arbitrage” when commercial banks seek to obtain a road.Compared with the traditional credit business,it has the characteristics of strong concealment and high leverage.It hides credit assets through some special means.Although it increases bank profits,it also brings operational risks to banks,and it also makes government supervision and regulation difficult.As the internal risks of commercial banks continue to accumulate,once the risks break out,the entire banking industry and even the entire financial industry will be implicated,which is likely to trigger a financial crisis.As the risks faced by banks increase,the transformation and development cannot be delayed.This paper attempts to study the risk of commercial banks engaging in non-standard business through a combination of theory and empirical methods.Firstly,on the basis of reviewing the relevant theories of nonstandard business,the risk theory analysis framework of non-standard business of commercial banks is established.Then combined with the background of relevant regulatory regulations,from the development history,business model and development status of non-standard business of China's commercial banks,from the perspective of risk endogenous mechanism and transmission mechanism Then on the basis of empirical analysis,the bankruptcy risk Z-Score value is selected as the explanatory variable to measure the risk faced by commercial banks,and the relative scale(FB)of non-standard business of commercial banks is selected as the explanatory variable.Based on the data of 20 representative banks in 2008-2016,the relevant models were constructed and empirically analyzed with Stata software.The conclusions are as follows: Commercial banks engaged in non-standard business will significantly increase their systemic risks.Finally,combined with the latest regulations of the "New Regulations on Assets Management" and the actual situation,it proposes an effective method for the transformation and development of non-standard business,and proposes corresponding policy recommendations for ensuring that the method can be effectively implemented for China's financial market.