Research On The Substitution Rate Of Enterprise Annuity Based On Stochastic Interest Rate

Nowadays,with the continuous improvement of the economic level and the increasingly advanced medical technology level,the average life span of the population has been prolonged,the mortality rate has declined,and the problem of population aging has become a worldwide problem.Because of the previous family planning policy,the problem of population aging has become more prominent in China.According to the Statistical Yearbook of China 2018,the proportion of the aged population over 65 years old in the total population of China at the end of 2017 was 11.4%,which has seriously exceeded the United Nations standard of 7% in an aging society,and then the serious problem of population pension.After years of exploration and efforts,China has gradually established a three-pillar old-age security system.At present,the basic old-age insurance is the main one,which bears the huge pressure of the old-age security.At the same time,the government is also facing heavy financial pressure.Because of the late start,the enterprise annuity as the "second pillar" of the old-age security system has not yet played a key role.There is a big gap between the development scale and coverage of the enterprise annuity and the basic old-age insurance.There are obvious regional and industrial differences in the development structure.Based on the current situation of China's pension system,the development of enterprise annuity plan is an effective measure for the government to alleviate financial pressure.It is also effective to attract and retain talents for enterprises,improve the living standards of individuals after retirement.Enterprise annuity plan plays an important role in the improvement of China's pension security system,which is more conducive to the sustainability of China's pension security system.In the process of developing enterprise annuity,we must pay attention to the indicator of the replacement rate of enterprise annuity.The replacement rate of enterprise annuity is an index to measure the level of pension security provided by employees after retirement.The replacement rate of enterprise annuity can reflect the effect of the implementation of enterprise annuity system from the side.And through its research,we can find the gap between the replacement rate of enterprise annuity and the target replacement rate,so as to improve the replacement rate of enterprise annuity by adjusting the factors affecting the replacement rate of enterprise annuity,and then make enterprise annuity better in the pension security of employees after retirement.Play a supplementary role in providing for the aged.But at present,most of the research on the replacement rate of enterprise annuity is carried out under fixed interest rate.In reality,interest rate fluctuates randomly.As a long-term old-age security plan,interest rate is an important indicator affecting the replacement rate.There are limitations in the research and calculation of the replacement rate if the interest rate is set as a fixed value.In the process of enterprise annuity operation,the randomness of interest rate may affect the accumulation of funds in enterprise annuity account,thus affecting the replacement rate of enterprise annuity.In the long run,it may affect the development of enterprise annuity.Therefore,it is necessary to discuss the replacement rate of Enterprise Annuity under the random interest rate,which can also provide some interest rate basis for the sustainable development of enterprise annuity.Based on the basic concepts,theories and development of enterprise annuity,this paper calculates and studies the replacement rate of Enterprise Annuity under fixed interest rate and random interest rate respectively.The first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of this study.At the same time,it collates the general situation and methods of related research on enterprise annuity at home and abroad,introduces the research ideas and contents and explains the innovation and shortcomings of this article.In the second chapter,introduces the concepts of enterprise annuity and the replacement rate of enterprise annuity.It mainly introduces the operation mode and fund accumulation mode of enterprise annuity in our country at present.At the same time,it analyses the development status of enterprise annuity in our country.Then it introduces the theoretical basis of the replacement rate of enterprise annuity,and makes a qualitative analysis of the factors affecting the replacement rate of enterprise annuity.The third chapter is based on the theory of the previous two chapters,constructs the replacement rate model of Enterprise Annuity under fixed interest rate,sets parameters according to the current situation of our country,and calculates the current replacement rate level.Then the sensitivity analysis is carried out,and the main factors affecting the replacement rate of enterprise annuity are obtained.In the fourth chapter,we use the Vasicek model of stochastic interest rate to analyze,use the seven-day repurchase rate data of banks to estimate the parameters,use the Monte Carlo simulation software of MATLAB to calculate the replacement rate of Enterprise Annuity under different circumstances,and analyze the results.Last Chapter,based on the theoretical framework and empirical simulation analysis of occupational pension replacement rate under fixed and stochastic interest rates,summarizes the relevant conclusions and puts forward relevant improvement suggestions.