The Impact Of Real Estate Price Fluctuation On Commercial Bank Loan Loss Preparation

The loss of credit assets is one of the main risk categories in the asset risk faced by commercial banks.Loan loss preparation,as an important regulatory index for commercial banks,is an important safeguard to avoid the loss of credit assets.At present,the accrual method of loan loss preparation for most commercial banks in China is still based on the incurred loss model,and there are obvious procyclical characteristics.Real estate loan is an important part of commercial bank credit.As of the fourth quarter of 2018,the balance of commercial real estate loans was 38.7 trillion yuan,up 20.19% compared with the end of 2017,accounting for 28.39% of the loan balance of financial institutions.At the same time,the non-performing rate of real estate loans has risen steadily in the past three years,with a growth rate of 120%,which has put a lot of pressure on the provision of loan losses for commercial banks.First of all,this paper uses the 2007-2016 commercial bank loan loss provision and loan provision rate and the data of various types of real estate price fluctuations to carry out panel regression to explore the impact of housing price fluctuation on loan loss provision.The results show that the price changes of commercial housing have a significant negative impact on the loan provision rate,but have a significant positive impact on the loan loss provision,indicating that although the increase in housing prices can reduce the proportion of loan loss provisions,but can drive loans The increase in the total amount of loss preparation.Further research has found that commercial banks with different property rights have different performances in loan loss provisions when prices fluctuate.Compared with state-owned commercial banks,non-state commercial banks are not sensitive to price changes in commercial housing.Compared with non-listed banks,listed banks have increased their total loan loss provisions when house prices fluctuate.Secondly,the paper makes a grey correlation analysis between the preparation of loan losses and the development situation of the industries with higher loan balances and bad loan balances,The results show that although the non-performing rate of the real estate industry ranks ninth,its correlation with loan loss provision is ranked.Third,and the industry that ranks in the top in the ranking of relevance has seen a relatively fast growth rate in recent years.Then,it sorts out the impact on the loan loss provisions when real estate prices fall.When house prices fall,they will directly affect the direct participants of the real estate market through investment effects and wealth effects.Ultimately,they will affect the credit scale of commercial banks through three channels: capital adequacy ratio,balance sheet and collateral value,which will affect the loan.Provision for loss preparation.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions on the methods,subjects and objects of loan loss provision.