The Research Of Factors Impact On The Loan Provision Of China Commercial Banks

Loan-loss provisioning system is an important reserve system that will guard against the risk of credit, countervail loan-loss. A lot of evidences show that the current loan system design has led to that the draw of provision is not in full and on time. As a result, the above mentioned phenomenon exacerbates the financial instability and macroeconomic volatility. So how to improve the loan-loss provision system in order to guard against credit risk and identify credit loss better has become the hot spot of the world's financial.The article analysis the factors that impact loan provision from two aspects of the theoretical model and empirical analysis.In the theoretical model analysis, the article constructs the loan provision model based on the optimal selection theory, analyzes how the default rates, economic prosperity, interest rates and other factors impact on the loan provision. Through the construction of game model, the research shows that the bank managers can take action to change the level of loan provisions.In the empirical analysis, on the basis of collection of data form 2004 to 2009 of major commercial banks in China, including financial data and business data of banks, GDP growth, interest rates and other indicators, the article uses two methods of gray relational analysis and panel data analysis to discuss the main factors that impact on the loan provision and to study the degree and direction of impactions from various factors. From an empirical point of view, the article proves that reserve provision of china commercial banks also exists "lag" "pro-cyclical " and other problems.At last, the article proposes the improvement suggestions.