A Study On The Impact Of Market Power On Securities Analysts' Forecast Behavior

With the continuous development of China's capital market,securities analysts have become an important part of the securities market.As an "information bridge" connecting listed companies and investors,securities analysts shoulder the important role of accelerating information transmission,alleviating information asymmetry,improving the efficiency of capital market operation,and promoting the effective allocation of resources in capital markets.Securities analysts are an important way to release information in the securities market.Their predictive behavior will directly affect the investment decisions of market participants,which will lead to significant market reactions and ultimately affect the effectiveness of the entire securities market.Therefore,in order to give full play to the role of China's securities analysts in the capital market,it is necessary to further explore the influencing factors of analysts' predictive behavior.The existing research focuses on the impact of factors such as company characteristics,analyst personal characteristics and information disclosure quality on analysts' predictive behavior,ignoring the important factor of product market power.Product market power is the “moat river” of listed companies.Research has shown that product market forces will have certain impact on listed companies' business performance,earnings quality and information disclosure behavior,which in turn will affect the predictability of listed companies' earnings and analysts.Predicted bias and analyst's concerns.Therefore,product market forces provide a new research perspective for this article,namely the impact of product market forces on analysts' predictive behavior.Based on the related literatures of product market forces and analysts' predicted behaviors,and based on the related theories of information demand theory and limited attention theory,this paper takes the 2012-2017 Shanghai-Shenzhen A-share listed company as the research object and empirically tests it.The impact of product market forces on analysts' predictive behavior.This article divides analyst predictive behavior into two dimensions,namely analyst predictive quality(including analysts' forecast accuracy,analysts' forecast divergence)and analyst forecasting activities(including analysts' predictive optimism,analysts' attention,the number of researchers surveyed)comprehensively examined the impact of product market forces on analysts' predictive behavior.This paper concludes that the weaker the market power of listed companies,the worse the analyst predicts the quality,that is,the lower the accuracy of analysts' predictions and the greater the degree of divergence;the weaker the market power of listed companies,the more optimistic the analysts predict High,and the lower the analyst's attention,the smaller the number of analysts surveyed.After further distinguishing the nature of equity,it is found that the influence of private enterprise product market power on analysts' forecast accuracy and analysts' forecast optimism is stronger than that of state-owned enterprises,while the influence of state-owned enterprise product market forces on analysts' forecasting divergence is more than that of private enterprises.More intense.There is no significant difference between the influence of product market forces on analysts' attention and state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.In addition,the positive impact of product market forces on the number of field surveys is only significant in the private enterprise sample.After a number of robustness tests,the conclusions of this paper are still valid.The research in this paper further explores the influencing factors of analysts' predictive behavior,enriches the research content in related fields,and deepens the understanding of analysts' predictive behaviors,helping investors to make more effective reference to analysts' forecasts,with theoretical and practical contributions.