Research On The Bridge Asset Securitization Pricing Based On Life Prediction

Asset securitization is an important means to meet the financing needs of infrastructure construction represented by bridges.Reasonable securities pricing is the key step of asset securitization.Failure to accurately assess asset maturity is an important issue in the pricing of existing bridge asset securitizations.According to the maturity matching theory,the debt maturity can be determined by accurately calculating the asset maturity,which,in turn,affects debt costs and risk management.The existing securitization pricing method only considers the maturity factor in the interest rate model and fails to accurately evaluate the asset maturity;the methods used to approximate the quantified asset maturity,such as alternative indicators,are largely imprecise.In this paper,the finite element analysis model of fatigue life is used to accurately forecast the bridge asset maturity,and the securities pricing model is improved by matching it with the debt maturity.Fatigue damage is the main cause of bridge structure deterioration.Based on the fatigue damage reconstruction method and the measured crack data of the bridge,the crack information at the bottom of the bridge deck were transformed into the crack strain of the corresponding unit in the finite element analysis model of the reinforced concrete bridge.On the basis of the current damage status of the bridge,using the finite element analysis system,the estimated fatigue life value of the bridge is quantitatively calculated by loading the reciprocating vehicle's fatigue load.Through the simulation and verification of bridges with different fracture levels,the life expectancy of assets is estimated,which provides a basis for the securitization of bridge assets with different damage levels.We also calculated the estimated lifespan of Japan's real S-bridge,and calculate the asset security price based on it.By matching the debt maturity of the bridge with the asset maturity,maturity of the securities can be accurately determined.At the same time,according to the annual revenue stream within the future asset maturity,the total future asset return flow and financing amount will be determined,and the securitization pricing model will be improved based on it.Taking the S bridge in Japan as an example,the Monte Carlo method is used to complete the calculation and analysis of the pricing of bridge securitization.In addition,this paper proposes a health monitoring and maintenance feedback mechanism to monitor the health status of bridges that have been subjected to long-term fatigue loading,verify and revise asset life prediction values,and update the health status and fatigue life predicted value of bridge after maintenance based on crack morphology.Taking the first maintenance of the S-bridge as an example,the extended maturity of the assets is identified according to the updated life prediction obtained based on the bridge health status.Financing the securities issued during the extended period can provide support for the post-decision-making and management of bridge securitization.The fatigue life prediction method and the improved securitization pricing model in this paper can achieve the reasonable and objective theoretical pricing of asset securitization;reduce the interest payment risk of liabilities;increase the return from asset securitization;and finally provide a basis for securities issuance and management.