Study On Homebuyers' Confidence Index And The Correlation With Housing Price Of Quanzhou City

As an important behavioral agent in the real estate market,homebuyers' behaviors are the subjective response under the action of internal and external factors.There are many irrational homebuyers' behaviors that can't be fully explained by the traditional economic theories based on the hypothesis of “rational man”.The rise of behavioral economics has broadened the way of the study of the psychology and behavior of homebuyers.In behavioral economics,confidence is one of the important factors affecting people's irrational behavior.Confidence may only be the instinct and impulse to act,and not necessarily the result of people having all the information to make reasonable predictions.This paper compiles the homebuyers' confidence index by using big data of web search,and analyses the correlation between the change of homebuyers' confidence and the fluctuation of housing price by empirical research.Firstly,the feasibility of using web search data to compile homebuyers' confidence index by was explained by analyzing the correlation between homebuyers' confidence and web search data.Then the correlation theory of behavioral economics and real estate economics were used to analyze the interaction between the homebuyers' confidence and housing price.As the homebuyers' confidence rises,the housing demand increases and the housing price rises gradually under the influence of supply and demand in the complete market as.Driven by the rising of housing price,more and more people who believe that not buying a house means a loss join the ranks of homebuyers,and the homebuyers' confidence has further risen.It is vice versa when the confidence weakens.Secondly,taking Quanzhou City as an example,the Baidu search index data of keywords under five sub-indexes of economic environment,government policy,income level,psychological expectation and house property were used to compile the homebuyers' confidence index.The Pearson correlation coefficient between homebuyers' confidence index and the sales area of commercial residence is 0.914,which can reflect the change of homebuyers' confidence and the market situation.Finally,the correlation between homebuyers' confidence and housing priceof Quanzhou was analyzed by establishing the vector autoregressive model of homebuyers' confidence index and newly-built commodity housing price index of Quanzhou.The results show that there are interaction between homebuyers' confidence and housing price of Quanzhou.The homebuyers' confidence is greatly affected by the fluctuation of housing price and the rising of housing price stimulate the improvement of homebuyers' confidence.Housing price is positively but little affected by homebuyers' confidence.On the foundation,the paper put forward strategies and suggestions for Quanzhou government...