Study On The Long-run Performance Of Initial Public Offerings In China

At present,there are three abnormal phenomena in the new stock market: new stock issuance premium,new stock issuance market overheating and long-run Performance of the new stock market.The research object of this paper is the long-run Performance of new stock.The long-run Performance of new stock refers to the phenomenon that the return rate of new stock is lower than the average return rate of the market or the return rate of the same type of non-new shares in a long period of time after listing.The stock market in our country started late,and there is little research on the long-run Performance of the new stock market,and there is no systematic research on it.IPO suspended in 2013,after the 2014 reform restarted,the Securities Regulatory Commission proposed to gradually excessive registration system.In addition,our country is focusing on promoting the Science and Technology Innovation Board,and the role of direct financing in the market is becoming more and more important.In view of the complex phenomenon of the new stock market on the eve of the reform and the important link of the IPO as the direct financing,this paper makes a systematic study on the long-run Performance of the new stock market in China,and provides a reference for the research after the reform.The research object of this paper is mainly focused on the sample of new shares in two stages before and after the reform,that is,from 2010 to 2012 and from 2014 to 2017.The main data of the study are the basic data of IPO and the trading data about three years after the IPO.In this paper,SAS data analysis software is used to calculate the excess cumulative return rate of the new stock portfolio with a time of 3 years and issued every six months,and draw the trend chart of the excess cumulative return rate.From the chart observation,whether before or after the reform,there are excess cumulative returns.The whole period of weakness is U-shaped,and the long-run Performance of new stock has been improved in a period of time after the reform.In general,the long-run Performance of new shares in China fluctuates between 1 year and 2.5 years.In addition,the paper concludes that there is a "market value effect" in the long-run Performance of the new stock,and the industry positioning and the bull bear cycle also have a certain impact on the long-run Performance of the new stock.After proving the existence of long-run Performance of new shares,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of new shares with the basic data of IPO new shares.According to the standard calculation,the excess cumulative rate of return in the first year,the 1.5 year,and the second year after the end of the issue premium will be used as the explained variable,,the following conclusions are obtained: premium rate,turnover rate,circulation market value ratio,sustainable growth rate,and so on.Market positioning has always been a factor affecting the long-run Performance of new shares in the two stages.Finally,according to the above factors and description of statistical analysis of the circulation market and distribution market put forward relevant suggestions.