| In the decades after the real estate reform,China's real estate industry has made tremendous contributions to the growth of the national economy,but the accompanying high housing prices and land finance issues have also become the focus of public concern.At present,whether China's real estate industry is developing healthily,how to develop healthily has become a concern of the public.This paper uses evolutionary economics as a theoretical guide to divide the industry into evolutionary and non-evolutionary industries.First,the real estate cobweb model is used to analyze the specific evolutionary path of real estate over-speculation affecting economic shocks.This paper analyzes the evolutionary neutral economic effects of the real estate industry from an empirical perspective.While consider the relationship between the real estate industry and the inflation index,using the dynamic equilibrium price index(DEPI)method of Shibuya(1992),the inflation index of China after the inclusion of real estate price factors is measured.The results show that the CPI index,which does not consider real estate prices,seriously underestimates China's inflation rate.About the real estate industry,consumption and the investment crowding.The empirical research shows that the wealth effect of China's real estate industry on consumption is greater than the crowding effect;the squeeze effect of real estate investment in China is tested by the vector error correction model.The results show that in the long run,real estate investment has a strong crowding out effect on non-real estate investment.Each additional unit of real estate investment will result in a decrease of 1.5591 units of non-real estate investment.In the real estate industry's contribution to total factor productivity.There is a strong negative correlation between the growth of China's real estate industry's capital stock and total factor productivity.For every 1% increase in real estate capital stock,total factor productivity drops by 0.3%,and over-development of the real estate industry lowers total factor productivity.This paper also compares and analyzes the characteristics of the US subprime mortgage crisis and the economic development of Japan's bubble economy period,combines the real estate development situation of German real estate industry with speculation,proves the harm of excessive speculation to economic development through case,and further illustrates the speculative real estate industry as a pillar.The industry is questionable.In terms of innovation,this paper supplements and perfects the existing research from the perspectives of theory and evidence.For the first time,it analyzes the development of real estate industry from the perspective of evolutionary economics,and verifies the real estate industry from four different empirical research perspectives. |
PDF Full Text Request