Demand Effects And Empirical Research On The Degree Of Real Estate Speculation

The real estate is an indispensable part of the national economy and household wealth, it is not only a commodity, but also an investment product. The development of the real estate market is close to economic fluctuations, the rapid development of the real estate market led to the prosperity of the national economy, weak real estate market will also have a recession. China’s real estate market began to develop because of reform and opening up, which has become a pillar industry of national economy. But with the acceleration of the process of market-oriented, especially this year, price of real estate has risen rapidly and the national economy started to swell, the price is too high that has exceeded the capacity of residents, and has a negative impact on economic development.In order to control the excessive growth of the real estate prices, the government must take some measures to make the real estate not only meet the needs of economic growth, but also curb excessive speculative demand.To illustrate the factors affecting demand of real estate, on the basis of the theory of real estate bubble, the demand for real estate is divided into consumer demand and speculative demand, to promote the role of these two different requirements on real estate prices from real estate development process and the empirical results, we could see, in the case of short-term real estate supply, rigid demand in the premises of the market in China still occupies a dominant position, but consumer’s speculative demand in recent years is vigorous.This article is divided into five parts:The first chapter is the introduction, mainly to explain the background and rationale of this study, the main ideas and structure of the practical significance of this study.The second chapter is the theory of the narrative part, on this basis we could establish the theoretical framework of this article. Firstly, we listed the review of domestic and foreign research on real estate market, real estate prices and the economic variables, the theory of the real estate bubble; then discussed the dual attributes of the real estate, including product attributes and investment attributes; And then consumer demand and speculative demand theory and its influential factors were analyzed to establish the theoretical framework of the real estate needs. When analyzing the influencing factors of the real estate speculative demand, we introduced expected factors to explain the generation of the real estate bubble. Lastly, the model of the real estate needs:a consumer demand model and speculative demand, factors affecting consumer demand, we selected the rental price as disposable income of real estate market, the speculative demand as land prices, disposable income and the rent is now the value that represents the real price and land price represents speculative prices, you can get the degree of the entire real estate market speculation.The third chapter is the theory test part. Econometric model based on the theoretical framework in the previous chapter, we used data of first quarter1998to fourth quarter2010to process, first of all, if the ADF unit root test, Johansen test were drawn between variables in the data and itself is smooth, there is a cointegration relationship; Then, in order to avoid spurious regression, the test for a causal relationship, using the Granger causality test for the accuracy of the data analysis,"Chow’s breakpoint" discovery data in the first quarter of2004existence of change, then put first quarter of2004as dummy variables into the equation, we could get the two different models before and after the first quarter of2004.The fourth chapter is the conclusion. From empirical model of the third chapter, we found that in China’s real estate market, consumer demand is dominant, but since the first quarter of2004, a sharp decline in consumer demand, and the speculative demand is vigorous, the entire proportion of price is growing. The speculative demand and the existence of the real estate bubble is not conducive to the stability of the real estate market prices.The fifth chapter is the policy proposals on real estate speculation. Firstly, we analysis the Chinese real estate market speculation:One reason is the scarcity of land caused by the limited supply of real estate, developers take advantage of the sale of land for speculative gain; Government’s land auctions for financing income "land finance", prompted the Government to increase the price of land, on the other hand the government for land power is to the existence of a "rent-seeking". In order to avoid the real estate bubble, we should focus on the real consumer demand and curb real estate speculation, so in this paper, we give some several policy recommendations:to increase the supply of land market, the construction of low-rent housing and affordable housing to meet the needs of lower-middle class, use of financial, fiscal and taxation system suppression distinguish between consumer demand and speculative demand, to curb real estate speculation, and gradually establish and improve the real estate market information disclosure system.The contribution of this paper is:(1) The demand for real estate was divided into consumer demand and speculative demand, the relevant variables affecting the two requirements was to establish a demand model, which can clearly see the different effects of the sample period.(2) In the econometric model analysis process, Chow breakpoint and the introduction of dummy variables, the establishment of two to one quarter of2004as the breakpoint model, we could see the different impact of consumer demand and speculative demand on prices.Deficiencies of this article is factors affecting the real estate consumer demand and speculative demand, and factors that may occur between the interaction, such as:income factors may not only affect consumer demand, but also affect the speculative demand, these deficiencies need further study and improvement.