| China is under a vast territory and complex landforms.Frequent meteorological disasters such as drought,floods and typhoons frequently affect the development of agricultural production in China.As a risk management tool,agricultural insurance plays an irreplaceable role in achieving sustainable and stable development of agriculture.Currently,it has been applied and developed in more than 40 countries around the world.Although China's agricultural insurance started late,it has developed rapidly.From 2007 to 2016,China's agricultural insurance premiums expanded from 5.333 billion yuan to 41.771 billion yuan.Judging from the practical experience of agricultural insurance in various countries,traditional agricultural insurance has many defects,such as high claims cost,difficultly in surveying and determining loss,and high credit risk.In order to improve the agricultural risk management system,to meet the needs of new type of agricultural management main body,and avoid the inherent management and technical problems of traditional agricultural insurance,explore the new agricultural insurance has become the focus of the academic research in recent years.From 2007 to 2017,national policy emphasizes the innovation development of agricultural insurance repeatedly.In August 2014,the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Modern Insurance Service Industry” proposed to actively develop agricultural insurance,explore new products and services such as weather index insurance,and enrich agricultural risk management tools.In May 2017,"Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Policy System to Cultivate New Agricultural Business Subjects" proposed to actively carry out weather index insurance.Weather index insurance is supported by science and technology and big data has gradually become an important part of China's agricultural insurance transformation.By the end of 2018,China has carried out weather index insurance pilots in 21 provinces and cities,involving more than 50 kinds of products which include large food crops and local characteristic economic crops.With the development of meteorological index insurance,the disadvantages of basis risk are gradually revealed,which mainly come from the following aspects: First,the compensation for meteorological index insurance is based on the meteorological index in the region,while the actual damage of individual farmers is related to the local small-scale weather conditions;Secondly,in addition to weather factors,crop yields are also related to other non-weather factors such as diseases and insect pests,farmer production skills,soil quality,variety;Thirdly,the details of data and product design will affect the accuracy of product design,such as the amount of data is too small or poor quality,whether the index design meets the actual disaster,the correlation between the meteorological index and crop losses,etc..Among them,the basis risk caused by the first two is inherent in weather index insurance,while the latter one can be reduced by optimizing product details.At present,Chinese scholars have reached a basic consensus on the design process of meteorological index insurance products,but the methods in the key aspects of product design are unconfirmed.In order to improve the accuracy of product design and reduce the risk of basis difference,this paper systematically sorts out the domestic and international relevant research and the domestic pilot progress.Therefore,this paper takes Hubei Province,the largest rapeseed producing area in China,as the research object,and hopes to optimize the product design as much as possible to reduce the risk of basic difference.It also hopes to provide some ideas for the design and pilot of rapeseed weather index insurance in Hubei Province and other similar areas of the Yangtze river basinThis paper is divided into seven chapters.The first three chapters provide theoretical support for this study.The fourth chapter to the sixth chapter are empirical research.The specific conditions are as follows:Chapter1 is introduction.First of all,this chapter describes the research background and significance,research methods,technical routes and possible innovations and deficiencies of this paper are elaborated.Then,this chapter reviews the domestic and international research from the two directions of meteorological index insurance and agricultural risk regional division,as the theoretical basis of this paper.Chapter2 is the status and evaluation of the weather index insurance pilot.This chapter collects the pilot products of meteorological index insurance that have been filed by the Bank Insurance Supervision and Management Commission before 2019.Then summarize and analyze from multiple perspectives,and draws inspiration for the follow-up product design accord with the actual situation.Chapter3 is the analysis of rapeseed cultivation and risk in Hubei Province.This chapter summarizes the situation of rapeseed cultivation in Hubei Province from both aspects of the whole and the local.Through analysis,we found that the overall rapeseed production level in Hubei Province is in the leading position in the country.However,there are cases of uneven distribution of production,high level of yield,and large difference in volatility among cities in the province.Further analysis of the risk of rapeseed yield fluctuations found that meteorological disaster risk is the main risk faced by rapeseed production in Hubei Province.Chapter4 is the determination of the separation and yield reduction of rapeseed yield in Hubei Province.In view of the diversification of the trend yield fitting methods in the current meteorological index insurance research,and there are large differences in meteorological yields separated by various methods.In this paper,four common methods are used to fit the trend yield,through qualitative and quantitative analysis,the relatively optimal method is selected to separate the meteorological yield and calculate the yield reduction of rapeseed.Chapter5 is the establishment of the regression model of rapeseed yield reduction and meteorological index.Firstly,this paper uses the daily weather data from 1999 to 2016 to calculate the monthly rainfall,average temperature and accumulated sunshine hours of rapeseed in each city,and analyze the correlation with the yield reduction of rapeseed.Then we can obtain the degree of influence of meteorological factor on rapeseed yield and the period of influence.On this basis,11 meteorological indices were designed for the three main meteorological factors,and the regression factors were used to select the main hazard factors of each city to construct a regression relationship model between meteorological index and rapeseed yield reduction.Chapter6 is the design of insurance products for rapeseed climate index in Hubei Province.This chapter mainly describes the basic contents of the rapeseed meteorological index insurance products in Hubei Province,including the coverage,insurance period,insurance premium,etc.Among all the content,the empirical analysis of the rate determination and compensation plan is the focus of this chapter.This paper mainly uses the yield distribution model method to determine the rate,selects the best fitting distribution of each city meteorological index from 44 distribution models to estimate the incidence of rapeseed damage,and calculates the pure insurance rate under different deductible rates.Afterwards,the risk zoning of the rapeseed meteorological index insurance in Hubei Province was studied.This paper believes that the cluster analysis method can effectively divide the phonological area facing similar risks into one area,however,care must be made in the selection of zoning indicators.Based on the principle of selecting appropriateness of indicators,this paper selects seven zoning indicators,which can reflect the risk of rapeseed production in Hubei more comprehensively,without causing overlapping indicators.Then using the system clustering method to divide 13 rapeseed cultivation cities in Hubei Province into four risk areas.Finally,combined with the results of risk zoning and the calculation formula of gross insurance premium rate,the insurance rates of rapeseed meteorological index and the compensation plan were determined for each city in Hubei Province.Finally,summarize the conclusions of this paper and make relevant recommendations.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper gives a comprehensive summary and analysis of the domestic theoretical research and the actual pilot weather index insurance products.(2)The basis risk is fully reduced in the product design.Firstly,the multi-method mutual verification is carried out on key design links,and the relative optimal method is selected for product design,which fully improves the accuracy of the product.Secondly,a variety of meteorological indexes are set up to select the index that best reflects the actual damage situation in each region.Finally,the study of agricultural risk regionalization was applied to the design of meteorological index insurance products to optimize the insurance premium rate,and effectively reduce the risk of increasing base risk caused by the wide-scale implementation of meteorological index insurance in the province.The shortcomings of this paper are as follows:(1)The data quality is not high.There are data missing and outliers.Although it is supplemented and corrected by means of the average value over the years,it will still have some impact on the research.At the same time,the amount of data samples is too small which will affect the accuracy of the results to some extent.(2)Although considering various meteorological factors during the growth period of rapeseed,it is impossible to evaluate the interaction between various factors,resulting in the inability to design comprehensive meteorological index insurance products.(3)There are fewer meteorological stations,and almost one meteorological site in each city is far from covering the actual meteorological conditions of each city. |
PDF Full Text Request