| Grassland is the main land resource in China,accounting for 40.9% of the country's total land area,which is 2.91 times the arable land area and 1.89 times the forest area.Inner Mongolia autonomous Region with 88 million hectares of grassland,accounting for 22 percent of the total grassland area of China and 74 percent of the total land area of Inner Mongolia.Grassland is an important national ecological security barrier,with a strong ability to sequestrate carbon and cope with climate change.At the same time,grassland is also an important resource for grassland animal husbandry,which is of vital importance to social and economic development.However,the frequent occurrence of grassland risks seriously threatens grassland ecological security and livestock production and management,the frequent occurrence of drought and snow disaster risks,the high loss of fire risks and biological disasters,as well as the human risks caused by unreasonable human activities,all have a serious impact on the grassland,resulting in huge losses.Therefore,explore grassland risk management methods to ensure grassland ecology and production safety.The practice of developed countries has proved that grassland insurance is a feasible and effective risk management tool for dispersing grassland risks.Grassland in our country,therefore,risk serious threat against the background of grassland ecological security and sustainable production,China on May 29,2019,the Ministry of Finance,bureau of trees,ministry of agricultural and rural affairs,silver circ jointly issued by the "about accelerating the development of agricultural insurance in high quality guidelines","demonstration research to develop grassland insurance clauses,improve the system of grassland insurance".So how do you design an effective prairie insurance contract? So that it can disperse grassland risks,stable grassland animal husbandry development.Based on the above background,this study integrated use of risk management,insurance,disaster science,econometrics and other related theories and methods,in the prairie insurance as the research object,the agricultural insurance development and high quality construction and utilization of grassland ecological protection dual background,to explore how to make grassland insurance contract design more scientific and accurate,In order to provide scientific and detailed theoretical and empirical basis for optimizing the construction of grassland insurance system and elaborating the design of grassland insurance contracts,the following three research problems are proposed to be solved step by step:First,what is the spatial differentiation law of grassland integrated risk?Four factors in regional disaster system theory and the prairie risk formation reasons and cause damage mechanism,on the basis of this article constructs the comprehensive risk zoning of grassland three-level frame,to include multiple risk interaction in grassland in the comprehensive risk evaluation index system,using the index system from the perspective of space,xilingol league area 12 flag county's grassland comprehensive risk for clustering analysis,The counties with the same risk size were classified into one category,and the risk size of each risk area was discriminated to obtain the comprehensive risk zoning map of Xilingol grassland.Second,what is the optimal type of grassland insurance product? How to determine the optimal index of grassland insurance?According to the characteristics of grassland and its risk,what is the optimal insurance product type applicable to grassland? After defining the optimal grassland insurance product type,how to choose the optimal grassland index? This part starts from theoretical and empirical perspectives.First,it analyzes what the optim al grassland insurance should be from the insurance theory,and draws lessons from international experience to determine the optimal insurance product type.Secondly,the key disaster factors of grassland risk formation were identified from the cause mechanism of risk formation,and the quantitative relationship between the disaster factors and grassland risk loss was constructed,and the optimal index of grassland index insurance was obtained.Third,how to determine the rate of grassland insurance scienti fically?The key of insurance contract design is to refine the premium rate,which can avoid moral hazard and adverse selection to a certain extent,and is conducive to the stable and sustainable development of insurance in the long run.Therefore,based o n the non-life insurance actuarial theory,probability distribution theory and expected utility theory,this part first predicted the trigger value of humidity index insurance based on the ARIMA model,and divided the humidity measurement indexes under different guarantee levels.Then,the climate yield reduction rate was determined according to the quantitative relationship between humidity measurement indexes and grassland risk loss indexes.Finally,the pure premium rates of grassland wetness index insurance in different risk areas were calculated according to the expected utility function.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:First,from the spatial dimension,the comprehensive risk distribution of Xilin gol grassland has obvious differences.Based on the risk assessment index system,the comprehensive risk regionalization of grassland was divided into four levels: extremely high,high,medium and low,and a total of four risk areas were obtained.The risk areas presented the characteristics of "two heavy,middle light".Specifically,Sunite Left Banner,Sunite Right Banner,Xianghuang Banner and Erlianhot city were extremely high-risk areas.Abaga Banner,Xilinhot city and Xiwu Banner are high risk areas;East Wuqi is the middle risk area,while Zhengxiang White Banner,Zhenglan Banner,Taiwusi Banner and Duolun County are the low-risk areas.Second,index insurance products are suitable for grassland.Index insurance products have the outstanding advantages of reducing information asymmetry and transaction costs.At the same time,from the perspective of the understanding degree of the insured and the convenience degree of the insurer to the supply of the index insurance products,the index insurance products are the best choice for grassland insurance.On the other hand,from the perspective of international development experience,the development of grassland insurance products has undergone a transition from loss compensation insurance to index insurance.From the perspective of t he insurance market,weather index insurance is more in line with the characteristics of grassland and convenient for underwriting institutions to operate.Therefore,at present,index insurance products,especially weather index insurance products are sui table for China's grassland.Thirdly,the humidity index is the best choice of grassland index insurance.From the perspective of index selection principle,the stronger the index's explanatory ability to risk loss is,the better the index is.Based on this modeling,it is found that the meteorological index is better than the man-made index,and among various meteorological indexes,the humidity index can better describe the grassland risk loss from both the time dimension and the space dimension.Therefor e,humidity index is chosen as the optimal index for grassland insurance.Fourthly,from the time distribution of pure premium rate,the monthly pure premium rate is more representative than the annual pure premium rate,that is,the monthly premium rate is more realistic,and at the 40% and 60% guarantee level,the pure premium rate of humidity insurance from January to June is generally higher than that from July to December.Fifthly,from the perspective of spatial distribution of pure premium rate,the spatial difference of pure premium rate is obvious.Under the 40% and 60% guarantee level,the pure premium rate of grassland humidity index insurance is the highest in the very high-risk area,followed by the high-risk area,the middle risk area and the lowrisk area are in the third and fourth place respectively.The innovations of this thesis are as follows: First,this research improves the framework of comprehensive grassland risk assessment and zoning.This thesis integrates multi-source data of space-ground-air,incorporates multiple grassland risks into the same research framework,conducts comprehensive grassland risk assessment and zoning,fills up the gaps in grassland comprehensive risk assessment and zoning research,and identifies and quantifies multiple grassland risks.The interaction relationship between risks has improved the index system of comprehensive grassland risk assessment and zoning,thus building a framework for comprehensive grassland risk assessment and zoning,and obtaining a comprehensive grassland risk zoning map.Secondly,this study has determined the index suitable for grassland weather index insurance.Integrating the multi-source data of sky-earth-air,based on the design principle of index insurance,the hazard factor with the strongest explanatory power of grassland risk loss is identified as the index,which improves the explanatory power of the index on grassland risk loss and makes up for the previous research which the design basis risk of index insurance is too large.Third,this research provides pure rates for different risk areas,different protection levels,and different months.Each risk area has its corresponding rate so that the risk is similar to the rate,thereby further satisfying insurance design principles of the equivalence of the rate and the risk.At the same time,it provides rates for different protection levels and different months,providing herdsmen with more insurance options to meet the needs of policyholders,thereby further satisfying the principle of maximum demand satisfaction in the insurance design principles.Fourth,the research in this thesis finds that the design of insurance can break away from the traditional protection of one or more disaster risks and turn to consider the protection of hazard factors.Protecting hazard factors can improve the efficiency of insurance protection,and it can also solve the problems of product design that is difficult to design or design is difficult to refine due to low quality and insufficient data.The content of further in-depth research in this thesis is as follows: First,scientifically quantify risks and avoid human interference.At present,risk quantification is to determine the probability and degree of risk through the disaster grade or risk index specified by the national standard,but this may deviate from reality to a certain extent,because the national standard document is too large and may be applicable to a region,but not apply to another area.Second,the study on the determination of district rates that break the administrative boundaries.At present,due to data limitations,all zoning rate determinations are restricted to administrative divisions,but administrative divisions are not risk zoning,and the determination of zoning rates that break administrative boundaries can further satisfy the principle of equal risk and rate.Third,further research from the perspective of herders' payment.If this grassland insurance is promoted,for different monthly rates,how does the operating organization's business develop and operate? Which months of insurance do herders prefer to insure?... |
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