Study On Deviation Of Local Fiscal Expenditure Budget

Finance is the foundation and important pillar of national governance,and budget is the core of finance.Whether the budget system is scientific or not and whether the budget constraint is effective depends largely on the control of the deviation of financial budget and final accounts.This paper uses the expenditure budget and final accounts data of the provinces from 1994 to 2016 to study whether the local fiscal expenditure in China is carried out according to the budget.By sorting out the relevant literature and combining with the current situation of local fiscal expenditure budget deviation in China,this paper mainly analyses the following contents by using the methods of comparative analysis,statistical analysis,normative analysis and empirical analysis.Firstly,the basic characteristics of the deviation of local fiscal expenditure budget in the whole province.This paper defines the process of budgetary change as: Budgeting at the beginning of the year-adjusting budgets-final accounts,and uses two methods to measure the degree of budgetary deviation: the mean of the deviation degree and the deviation degree of the mean.Research conclusions:(1)There is a serious phenomenon of "overexpenditure" in the local fiscal expenditure of the whole province.The deviation of the budget from the beginning of the year to the final accounts is more than 10% all the year round and more than 20% in many years.(2)The average deviations of "budget at the beginning of the year-final account","budget at the beginning of the year-adjusted budget" and " adjusted budget-final account" are concentrated in 15%-25%,20%-40% and negative 9%-11% respectively.(3)Regional comparison shows that the eastern region has the lowest degree of deviation and the western region has the highest degree of deviation.In recent years,the degree of regional deviation has shown a trend of convergence.Then,the characteristics of budget deviation at and below provincial level and their respective contributions to the budget deviation of the whole province,this part of the analysis is limited to the "budget at the beginning of the year-final " link.The results show that:(1)The budget deviation between provincial level and below is more concentrated in 20%-30%.Generally speaking,the deviation is large,and both of them are "overexpenditure".The budget deviation ratio between provincial level and below provincial level is about 23.49% and 21.03%.(2)The eastern region of provincial expenditure deviates the least,the western region and the northeast region deviate more;the deviation degree of expenditure budget under provincial level is lower than provincial level,and is still the lowest in eastern region.(3)The proportion of provincial fiscal expenditure at the provincial level is much smaller than that below the provincial level,which is 23.90% and 76.10% respectively.The deviation of expenditure budget under provincial level is slightly larger than that at provincial level,but the contribution rates of expenditure budget deviation under provincial level and under provincial level to the overall budget deviation are 24.96% and 75.04%,respectively.It can be inferred that the deviation of fiscal expenditure below the province is the main component of the deviation of local fiscal expenditure budget,and the relatively large contribution rate below the province is basically due to the higher proportion of expenditure below the province.Finally,empirical research on the causes of budget deviation.Based on the expenditure budget and final accounts data from 1994 to 2016,a fixed effect model is established.Fiscal autonomy,decentralization of expenditure within the province,degree of economic development,degree of openness and industrial structure are selected as explanatory variables.The research shows that the degree of economic development is positively correlated with the deviation degree of local fiscal expenditure budget and final accounts,mainly with the budgeting method and the performance appraisal mechanism;the increase of decentralization of expenditure and fiscal autonomy in the province will significantly inhibit the deviation degree of local fiscal expenditure budget.The deviation of budget at the beginning of the year and final accounts reflects an institutional phenomenon.Based on the analysis of the deviation of budget from the actual situation in China,this paper puts forward the direction of improving and perfecting the budget management system in the future.