Research On The Influence Of Strengthening Budget Constraints On The Deviation Oflocal Fiscal Budget And Final Accounts

For a long time,there has been a large gap between the financial budget and final accounts of local governments in China,and the deviation degree of budget and final accounts remains high,which has had an adverse impact on all aspects of economic and social operation.On August 31,2014,the 10th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 12th National People’s Congress voted and adopted the decision on Amending the budget law of the People’s Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the new budget law),which was officially implemented on January 1,2015.In the general provisions of the new budget law,it is particularly pointed out that it is necessary to "standardize government revenue and expenditure behavior,strengthen budget constraints,strengthen budget management and supervision,and establish a comprehensive,standardized,open and transparent budget system".This revision has been brewing for 10 years and is the highest guiding document for the preparation,review and approval,implementation and adjustment,final accounts,supervision and evaluation of government budget in the new period;In addition,On September 26,2014,the State Council also issued the decision on deepening the reform of the budget management system(hereinafter referred to as the decision),which further defined the direction and specific tasks of the reform of the budget management system in the future within the framework of the new budget law.It can be seen that the implementation of the new budget law and decision marks the beginning of a new round of budget management system reform,which plays an important role in strengthening budget supervision,scientifically preparing budget,standardizing government behavior and improving financial efficiency.It is expected to correct the high deviation of budget and final accounts.In order to explore whether the new round of budget management reform dominated by the new budget law can reduce the unreasonable deviation of budget and final accounts of local finance,this thesis takes the new round of budget management reform marked by the implementation of the new budget law in 2015 as a quasi natural experiment to strengthen budget constraints.Firstly,this thesis analyzes the causes of budget and final accounts deviation from the theoretical level,discusses the relationship between the enhancement of budget constraints and the deviation of budget and final accounts and then puts forward the research hypothesis of this thesis.After that,the intensity Strength Differences-in-Differences is used for empirical analysis to study the impact of the reform of strengthening budget constraints on the deviation degree of fiscal revenue and expenditure budgets and final accounts of 30 provincial governments from 2009 to 2018.The empirical analysis shows that the reform of strengthening budget constraints marked by the new budget law has effectively reduced the deviation between the budget and final accounts of local fiscal revenue and expenditure;Through the mechanism test,it is found that the impact of the reform of strengthening budget constraints mainly reduces the deviation degree of budget and final accounts through two channels:improving the scientificity of budget preparation and strengthening budget review and supervision;Through further analysis,it is found that the impact of the reform of strengthening budget constraints has a heterogeneous impact on the deviation degree between different types of fiscal revenue and different expenditure items,and has a heterogeneous impact on the deviation degree of local fiscal budget and final accounts in different regions,different degrees of legalization.Finally,combined with the research conclusions and problems found in this thesis,this thesis puts forward targeted policy suggestions to reduce the unreasonable deviation of budget and final accounts from the perspective of the whole process of budget management.