A Study Of Exchange Rate Hedging Strategy Based On Research Of Sichuan Import And Export Enterprises Under The New Normal Of RMB Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one of the key factors affecting the development of foreign trade enterprises.The cost and revenue of enterprises are directly related to the foreign exchange rate involved in the operation of enterprises.In the past 15 years,with the continuous progress of the reform of the RMB exchange rate system,the RMB exchange rate pricing mechanism,pegged indicators and floating range have undergone several rounds of adjustment.The degree of marketization of the RMB exchange rate has greatly increased compared with the past,and the degree of correlation with the international and domestic financial markets has significantly increased.However,in recent years,influenced by the slowdown of China's economic growth,the downturn of major global economies and mainstream emerging market countries,as well as the global geopolitical,bilateral and multilateral trade frictions,the RMB exchange rate has completely deviated from the unilateral slow appreciation trend that has lasted nearly ten years since the exchange rate reform in 2005,and its direction,magnitude and speed of appreciation and depreciation have become difficult to accurately determine.It is expected that exchange rate elasticity will increase significantly,forming a new normal of large bilateral fluctuations.Firstly,this paper analyses the trend of RMB exchange rate since the "811 exchange rate reform" and finds out the uncertain characteristics of the trend.Through the study of the forming factors and influencing framework of RMB exchange rate expectation and the summary of the irrational characteristics of RMB exchange rate expectation,combined with the accuracy of the prediction of RMB exchange rate trend by the mainstream financial institutions in the market,it proves the people from many aspects.The complexity and uncertainty of currency exchange rate expectation.Secondly,by analyzing the current data and risk situation of exchange rate products trading of import and export enterprises in China and Sichuan Province,this paper summarizes the main sources of exchange rate risks faced by foreign currency settlement enterprises,including a variety of domestic and international market factors,combined with the new cycle of China's economy,the new normal situation and the trade frictions between China and the United States,and other current key issues affecting exchange rate trends and expectations.This paper concludes that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a new normal of large bilateral fluctuations under the influence of various internal and external factors and will continue to cause huge exchange rate risks to foreign trade enterprises.The main innovation of this paper is that,on the basis of theoretical analysis of the uncertainty of RMB exchange rate expectation and enterprise exchange rate risk exposure,through the investigation of leading import and export enterprises in many cities and industries in Sichuan Province,the exchange gains and losses,market risk preferences,exchange rate hedging measures,understanding and acceptance of various exchange rate derivatives in recent years are collected.In this paper,the exchange rate hedging situation of Sichuan enterprises is analyzed in detail,and some conclusions are drawn,such as poor understanding of exchange rate derivatives and market,primitive and backward trading behavior,and imperfect post-evaluation mechanism.Finally,based on the investigation and conclusion,this paper puts forward the concrete steps,measures and reference framework of enterprise exchange rate hedging system under the new normal exchange rate,answers the most concerned problems in the daily hedging operation of enterprises,and puts forward a differentiated system framework for selecting exchange rate hedging tools for enterprises with different payment and payment modes,financial accounting systems and risk preferences.Suggestions on how to fully enjoy market and policy dividends are put forward.Finally,this paper analyzes and summarizes the exchange rate hedging structure,strategy and trading mode of CH company,a key manufacturing enterprise in sichuan,and provides a real reference case of successful exchange rate hedging and appreciation for relevant import and export enterprises.With the continuous progress of RMB exchange rate reform and marketization,the large bilateral fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will change from the new normal to the normal,and the exchange rate risk exposures faced by enterprises will run through the whole operation of enterprises.Therefore,how to adapt to market changes,establish an appropriate exchange rate preservation structure,select the best exchange rate preservation and appreciation tools and adjust dynamically with market changes will become enterprises.The long-term focus of work will also provide a broader space for the development of RMB exchange rate derivatives.