The Different Impact Of Monetary Policy On Industries Production Based On Time-lag Perspective

The 19 th National Congress of China has made deepening the supply-side structural reforms as the primary task to implementing the concept of new development and building a modern economic system.However,in recent years,with the rapid growth of China's economic aggregate and the deepening of supply-side structural reforms,China's industrial structure problems have also become more prominent.The People's Bank of China has repeatedly adjusted its monetary policy to coordinate the imbalance among industrial structures.As a macro-control measure,monetary policy has advantages that other policies do not have.On the one hand,monetary policy has less crowding effect on the market,so it has less negative impact on the market.The adjustment of the economy is more gradual and flexible than other policies,and more in line with the essential requirements of the market economy.On the other hand,although monetary policy can play an important role in the process of adjusting the industrial structure,it usually exhibits a different industrial effect,that is,the effect of monetary policy on different industries is not the same.Scholars' explanation of this phenomenon is due to the different stages of development of different industries,factor input structure,product demand structure,etc.The impact of monetary policy on different industries will also be different.At present,scholars generally agree that the different industrial effect of monetary policy exists,but they have reached different conclusions on the degree of response to monetary policy in different industries.Through combing and reading related theories and literature review,this thesis argues that current scholars ignore the time lag in the transmission of monetary policy in national politics,which may be the reason for the inconsistent conclusions in the study of the difference of monetary policy industrial effects.It is believed that only studying the degree of response of different industries to monetary policy has certain limitations.From the implementation of monetary policy to the realization of monetary policy objectives,a process of transmission is needed.However,due to the heterogeneity between different industries,the transmission process of monetary policy in different industries also has the difference of time lag.This has led to differences in the time required to peak the impact of different industries after monetary policy changes.Therefore,the degree of response of different industries to monetary policy should be combined with the different time after the implementation of monetary policy.In summary,this thesis combines the time lag problem of monetary policy with the difference problem of industrial effect of monetary policy,and studies the different industrial effect of China's money supply channel,credit channel and interest rate channel from the perspective of time lag.This thesis first reviews the validity theory of monetary policy.The validity of monetary policy is the theoretical premise for studying monetary policy related issues,because only if monetary policy can have a substantial impact on the economy,the relevant issues of monetary policy can be studied.Then this thesis sorts out the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and judges whether these transmission channels are effective in China.After that,this thesis conducts the difference of monetary policy industry effect through China's money supply channel,credit channel and interest rate channel based on time-lag perspective.This thesis selects the broad money supply,the total loan amount of financial institutions,the actual interest rate level and the increased output value of China's three industries as the main variables,and constructs a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR)for empirical analysis.The empirical results show that the time lag of monetary policy under China's money supply channel and credit channel is weak in the primary and secondary industries and the tertiary industry,when the money supply and credit scale get a positive pulse,the impact on the output levels of the primary and secondary industries reached the maximum after three months.In the following six months and one year,the impact of money supply and credit scale on the output levels of the primary and secondary industries has gradually weakened.Conversely,changes in the output of the tertiary industry failed to reach the maximum at the three months after the impact of money supply and credit scale,it takes a year or more to reach the maximum after the impact of money supply and credit scale.This shows that it takes longer to reach the maximum.Under the interest rate channel,the time lag of monetary policy transmission is stronger in the secondary industry and the tertiary industry than in the primary industry.When the interest rate gets a positive pulse,the impact on the output levels of the secondary and tertiary industries peaked in six months,and the impact on the primary industry takes three years or more to reach its peak.Specifically,under the money supply channel and the credit channel,the impact on the output level of the primary industry and the secondary industry will be greater than that of the tertiary industry in the short term,the impact on the output levels of the first and second industries will gradually weakening over time,and the degree of influence on the output level of the tertiary industry has gradually increased,surpassing the primary and secondary industries.Under the interest rate channel,the impact of the interest rate change on the secondary industry and the tertiary industry output level in the short-term is greater than that of the primary industry.Over time,the impact on the secondary and tertiary industry output levels is weakened,and the degree of influence on the output level of the primary industry is gradually increasing,and exceeds the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.Finally,in order to further improve China's monetary policy,improve the effectiveness of monetary policy,and reduce the difference effects of industrial on the implementation of monetary policy.Strengthening the effect of China's monetary policy to promote industrial structure optimization.Based on the above analysis results,this thesis proposes countermeasures.