Research On The Industrial Asymmetric Effect Of Monetary Policy

The asymmetric effects of monetary policy are widespread,and the effects of expansionary monetary policy and tightening monetary policy of the same strength are very different.The impact of the same monetary policy on different regions,different industries,and different industries also differs greatly.This paper divides the two parts into empirical research on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy.The first part takes the different industries in the Yangtze River Delta as the research object,and uses the annual data of the Yangtze River Delta region from 1997 to 2016 to study the monetary policy through the PVAR model combined with the impulse response function.Asymmetric effects at different industrial levels.The second part takes the listed companies in the Yangtze River Delta as a sample,using the quarterly data of 2006Q1?2018Q3,and using the variable coefficient fixed effect model combined with the VAR model to analyze the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on the industry level in the Yangtze River Delta region.The results of the industrial level study in the Yangtze River Delta region show that the impact of monetary policy shocks on the added value of different industries is different in the speed,response and duration of the industry.From the perspective of response,the secondary industry is the largest,the tertiary industry is the second,and the primary industry is the smallest;from the perspective of response speed,the secondary industry has the fastest response rate,the tertiary industry is the second,and the first is the slowest;From the above point of view,the tertiary industry has the longest time,the primary industry is second,and the secondary industry is the shortest.From the results of variance decomposition,the contribution rate of money supply in the industrial added value of the three industries will increase with the increase of the number of periods,while the contribution rate of credit scale will remain relatively stable;among the three industries,the currency The policy variable has the highest contribution rate to the tertiary industry,followed by the secondary industry and the lowest in the primary industry.The research on the asymmetry of monetary policy at the industry level in the Yangtze River Delta region is mainly from the perspective of the long-term and short-term aspects of monetary policy.The model uses the scale of new credit in the Yangtze River Delta to measure monetary policy.The empirical results show that the sensitivity of the industry to monetary policy is positively correlated with the level of asset-liability ratio and capital intensity of the industry,and negatively correlated with the average size of enterprises within the industry.The real estate industry is most sensitive to the scale of new loans,followed by the home appliance industry and the financial industry,with the lowest mechanical equipment.The short-term impact of monetary policy shocks is very different in your different industries,and the short-term and long-term effects of monetary policy on the same industry are not consistent.Through empirical research on the Yangtze River Delta region,it is confirmed that monetary policy has an asymmetrical effect on the industrial and industrial levels in the Yangtze River Delta region.Monetary policy varies greatly between industries and industries.Based on the above empirical and conclusions,this paper argues that the government should consider the industrial asymmetry of monetary policy when formulating monetary policy,implement differentiated monetary policy,avoid a one-size-fits-all approach,and improve the monetary policy through improving the financial market system.The transmission mechanism will continue to advance the interest rate marketization process and promote the better effect of monetary policy.