Research On Risk Evaluation Of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Based On Soft Information

Agricultural production and management financing is difficult and expensive,and the supply and demand of funds are imbalanced.These problems have been restricting the development of agriculture and rural financial reform in China.Moreover,the information asymmetry between the fund supply and demand is the main factors leading to these problems.In order to solve these problems,China has constructed and initially formed a national agricultural credit guarantee system.In the process of agricultural credit guarantee risk evaluation,the traditional credit risk evaluation model,which mainly based on financial information,is difficult to play a role.However,the qualitative soft information,which can reflect the character and behavior of agricultural management entity,to some extent,can make up for the missing information and help to verify the authenticity of the obtained information to alleviate the problem of information asymmetry.On the basis of combing the relevant research literature,this thesis summarizes the concept,characteristics,function mechanism and risk management evaluation of agricultural credit guarantee.The main sources of agricultural credit guarantee risk are analyzed from the internal and external levels.The internal risk includes the credit guarantee risk from the main subjects of agricultural management,the management risk from agricultural production,the operational risk from cooperative financial institutions and the risk from agricultural guarantee companies themselves.The external risk includes policy risk,marketing risk and natural disaster risk.Moreover,the necessity of using soft information to evaluate agricultural credit guarantee risk is analyzed.The application of soft information can do great help to develop the characteristics of agricultural producer,improve the benefit of agricultural credit and prevent the risk of credit guarantee.By combing the characteristics of different types of agricultural management subjects,the soft information suitable for agricultural management subjects is identified,and the relationship between soft information and default behavior is empirically verified.On this basis,the risk evaluation index system of agricultural management subjects is constructed,and the corresponding weight and scoring mechanism are determined.Finally,in order to improve the risk evaluation of credit guarantee by using soft information,this thesis suggests that the system of soft information collection should be perfected,and the combination of soft and hard information should be strengthened in the process of risk assessment.In order to avoid the influence of subjective human factors on soft information,it is necessary to explore and strengthen the restraint mechanism of soft information actively.At the same time,the government should take lead to set up a comprehensive credit record system for the main subjects of agricultural management at the grass-roots level so that the information interconnection among financial institutions can be achieved.