Research On Default Risk Of Credit Bonds

Credit bonds have developed rapidly since 2014,with the number and scale reaching new heights.However,with the continuous expansion of the scale and the arrival of the peak period of centralized payment,credit risks are gradually exposed.Especially in 2018,with the downturn of macro-economy,the decline of social aggregate demand,and the limited financing channels of enterprises under the strict financial supervision policy,the situation of enterprises has become increasingly difficult.The credit bond market has entered the peak period of default,which has aroused widespread concern in academia and industry.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the causes of bond default,to improve the regulatory mechanism,to build a risk identification framework for investors,and to provide theoretical basis for enterprises to strengthen internal control and control business risks.Firstly,the paper elaborates the present situation of credit bond market and default.From the nature of enterprises,it finds that the main default subjects are mainly private enterprises;from the industry distribution,it finds that the energy industry is still the high incidence area of default events.Yongtai Energy Co.,Ltd.,as the only listed private enterprise in the coal sector of A-share market,is a typical case of this wave of default.On July 5,2018,"17 Yongtai CP004" defaulted substantially and triggered cross-protection clauses.Then,18 bonds of Yongtai Energy defaulted one after another,with a total amount of 19.22 billion yuan,triggering a heated discussion in the market.On the basis of reviewing the whole process of bond default,the paper analyses the causes of bond default from three aspects: firstly,consumption,investment and net export are not enough to drive economic growth,macro-economy is facing great downward pressure,and the total social demand is declining;secondly,the dividend of industry supply-side reform is declining,and both industry index and industry profit level are equal.Third,the diversified expansion of enterprises,high debt,in the environment of de-leveraging,limited financing channels lead to cash flow constraints,capital chain rupture.Then we use KMV model and Z-Score model to measure default risk.We find that Z-Score model can identify default risk better than KMV model.Z-Score model shows that Yongtai's energy financial situation has been in a worrying state for a long time,but the enterprise has not carried out reasonable and effective pre-risk prevention measures,and investors have not been able to identify and prevent risks in time.In addition,when issuing bonds,the main body gets AA + rating and the debt gets A-1 rating,which indicates that the rating agencies have not really played an early warning function.Through the analysis of Yongtai Energy as a typical case,aiming at the frequent occurrence of credit bond market risk events,this paper puts forward reasonable suggestions from the three dimensions of regulators,investors and enterprises.First of all,strengthen the supervision of rating agencies,strengthen punishment measures for unreasonable evaluation,and urge to improve risk screening ability.Secondly,investors should build a risk identification framework,attach great importance to the operation of macro and industry,pay attention to the company's strategic plan and financial situation,and prevent the deterioration of the company's operating conditions.Finally,enterprises should operate steadily,liabilities should be reasonable,internal control should be strengthened and risk management measures should be strengthened.