Research On Credit Risk Assessment And Pre?warning Of Small And Micro Enterprises Of Rural Credit Cooperatives At County Level

The small and micro enterprises are important micro-economic subjects in China's economy,and their development has been highly valued by the state.At the same time,the small and micro enterprises,as the main customer groups of county-level rural credit cooperatives,their sustainable and sound development helps to improve the operation and environment of rural credit cooperatives.However,the characteristics of small and micro enterprises determine that there is a greater risk for rural credit cooperatives to make loans to small and micro enterprises.Therefore,according to the characteristics of small and micro enterprises,county-level rural credit cooperatives should establish a scientific,effective and easy-to-operate credit risk assessment method for small and micro enterprises,and establish corresponding early warning mechanism,which can not only prevent and control the credit risk of small and micro enterprises,but also can solve the financing problem of small and micro enterprises in good operating conditions,thus promoting the positive and healthy development of small and micro credit business of rural credit cooperatives.This paper analyses the main risks and characteristics of small and micro credit business,introduces the general situation of county-levelrural credit cooperatives and the problems existing in small and micro credit business by combing the theory of bank credit risk.It analyses the problems existing in the risk management process and credit evaluation methods of S Agricultural and Commercial Bank and its county branches.According to the data of small and micro credit customers in S Agricultural and Commercial Bank,it is found the total assets return rate,sales profit rate,receivables turnover ratio,acid-test ratio,duration of enterprise,age and education of the owner are positively correlated with the default risk of small and micro enterprises by introducing the indicators of sustained operation period of enterprises,individual characteristics of the owner and macroeconomic variables,combining with traditional financial indicators,and applying Logistic and Probit models.The better the economic situation,the higher the GDP index and the lower the risk of credit default for small and micro enterprises.Finally,the risk assessment and warning model of small and micro credit is determined by variables and their weights,and the performance of the model is calculated,which proves that the modified model has good prediction ability.Finally,some countermeasures and suggestions on how to improve the level of credit risk assessment and management of county-level rural credit cooperatives has been put forward in this paper.It is believed that we should build a scientific and reasonable risk assessment system forsmall and micro credit,pay attention to the selection and weight distribution of non-financial indicators,improve the efficiency of information collection and credit risk assessment of small and micro enterprises by using technical risk control of big data,and expand the scope and methods of small and micro credit collateral,improve the quality of relevant personnel in small and mivro credit business and build a reasonable credit risk performance mechanism,as well as increase the direct and indirect support of local governments to small and micro enterprises to promote and guarantee their financing needs in order to reduce the credit risk of small and micro enterprises.