Research On Trade Interests Between China And The United States From The Perspective Of Global Value Chain

In the context of deep development of Global Value Chain?GVC?division of labor,it is difficult to reflect the truth of each country's trade benefits based on total value statistical accounting method;and with the rise of protectionism in the United States,the trade frictions provoked by the United States have become normalized and complicated,and becomes increasingly severe,which is also closely related to the bilateral trade imbalance.On the basis of sorting out the literature achievements of predecessor,this paper selects the data of input-output table of WIOD₂013 and ADB-MRIO,deconstructs the bilateral trade benefits between China and the United States from multiple point of view of source,whereabouts,industry and country.It corrects the Sino-US trade imbalance and the mismatch of trade benefits under the traditional trade statistics,studies the profit situation of both sides in different industry trade,and clarifies the distribution pattern of Sino-Us trade interests and its variation trend.The study finds that the link between China and the Us trade interests are getting increasingly closer under the perspective of GVC,and China has made a significant contribution in the process of US profit;the US has stronger profitability,and the trade benefits absorbed by China are overvalued;although in the sample interval,China's initiative in trade participation has gradually increased,China's high-tech manufacturing industry highly depends on the added value of the US,the development of service export is lag behind,and the contribution rate of domestic added value is relatively low;through the study of the trade value added balance between the two countries,it is found that the surplus of Sino-US important and export trade is overvalued by about 25%.On the basis of the decomposition of a country's exports,this paper decomposes the added value of a country's aggregate demand,and combined with two-stage CES utility function using Armington elasticity of substitution,reconstructs the trade effect appraisal model in view of GVC.This paper also assumes that the United States adds 25% tariffs on the “50 +200 billion” dollar inventory,and simulates the impact of the trade diversion effect and trade restriction effect caused by the former on the trade interests of China and the United States as well as the non-involved economic entity.It found that the effect of increasing domestic output and reducing the trade deficit that America expects was greatly reduced,nearly 75% of China's reductive trade benefits were replaced by the trade diversion effect of non-involved countries,while the negative impact on China's trade interests was within controllable degree.Finally,on the above research foundation,this paper offers a proposal on Sino-US trade interests based on the actual development of China and the United States combined the actual situation of the development between China and the United States: China should strengthen self-construction,drive the comprehensive deepening of reform with high-level opening,and enhance trade profitability;under the WTO framework,coordinate China-US trade frictions through trade negotiations to avoid escalation of conflict;accelerate the upgrading of traditional manufacturing and the autonomization of high-tech manufacturing,and attach importance to the development of service industry export;boost the development of value-added caliber trade accounting and formulate trade policies on account of global value chain.