Analysis Of The Change Of Total Factor Productivity In Xinjiang And Its Influencing Factors

The economic development of Xinjiang has attracted the attention of the government,the majority of Xinjiang residents and investors in Xinjiang.In October2013,the central government proposed the “One Belt,One Road” strategy.Xinjiang is a provincial city along the route.The development of Xinjiang's economy has received more extensive attention.As we all know,the improvement of Xinjiang's economy from the development level to the development level not only greatly enhances the living environment of the Xinjiang people,but also has a mutually beneficial impact on the construction of other provinces and cities when building the“Belt and Road”.moreover,it is of great meaning to calculate the economic development of Xinjiang.Based on the true reflection of the economic situation in Xinjiang in the past 18years(2000-2017),this paper systematically and effectively explores the changes in the total factor productivity of Xinjiang.The Total Factor Productivity(TFP)indicator was chosen because it is a core indicator of economic development in a given region.The underlying cause of economic disparity between different regions is due to differences in the growth of total factor productivity(Klenow & Rodriguze-Clare,1997).;Hall & JonesJones,1999).The article begins with a review of the theory of total factor productivity and the literature on the application of this method.In combination with the current economic development status of Xinjiang,the non-parametric Malmquist index way is go to analysis the TFPof Xinjiang over the years.In order to display the question of Xinjiang's problem in more detail,it is further analyzed from the following three aspects.(1)On the technical basis of understanding the general situation of Xinjiang's economic level from the current state of economic operation.Overall,calculate the total factor index value for the year 2000-2017 and analyze the changes in total factor productivity in Xinjiang during this period.Furthermore,the evolution patterns of regional total factor productivity of 15 prefectures(cities)in Xinjiang were analyzed,and the total factor productivity of different regions was decomposed,and the situation of these regions in different time periods was compared.The analysis foundthat the total factor productivity of 15 prefectures has different evolution patterns.Xinjiang's total factor productivity is increasing,but the rate of increase is very slow.The root cause is the decline of technical efficiency.Further analysis shows that whether it is technical efficiency or pure technology.Efficiency is in a state of slow growth,indicating that from the perspective of efficiency,Xinjiang should gradually improve the efficiency mechanism and improve the efficiency of production technology.(2)Compare the other 17 provinces and cities along the “Belt and Road” as a comparison object,and analyze the gaps in total factor productivity in Xinjiang and the areas for improvement.In the period from 2000 to 2017,the changes in the total factor productivity of Xinjiang's economy showed fluctuations such as increasing,then decreasing and then increasing.In the provinces along the “Belt and Road”,the changes in the total factor productivity rankings have declined.There are other speeds of identity development along the line and the diversification of Xinjiang's economy.(3)When analyzing the impact factors of TFP the VAR model is established by selecting appropriate index data.The interpretation of Granger causality is whether the test variable and the dependent variable have a causal relationship,and the impulse response map is used to analyze the mutual interaction between the variables.Influencing the relationship;then analyzing the contribution rate of each variable to the total factor productivity index by means of variance decomposition,knowing that the comprehensive development of total factor productivity is only affected by 30%,and the degree of influence from subsystems is from high to low: Economic development level,government factors,economic convenience factors,external factors,structural factors.This paper is based on the use of real economic data,scientific method model to empirical research on the development of Xinjiang's economy.Objectively and truthfully analyze the current economic situation in Xinjiang and summarize the factors affecting Xinjiang's total factor productivity.It is conducive to understanding the current economic situation in Xinjiang and ensuring the long-term stability of the current Xinjiang society,looking for new breakthroughs in the economy and developing Xinjiang's economy better and faster.