| The pharmaceutical industry is known as the permanent sunrise industry by the investors,and it is an important industry for asset allocation of institutional investors at home and abroad.In recent years,listed companies of China's pharmaceutical industry,especially the ones of producing innovative drugs,have been paid more and more attention by domestic and foreign investors.How to assess their investment value has become a hot topic between investors.Innovative drug is the core competitiveness of innovative drug listed companies.In the existing research on the investment value evaluation of listed companies in China's innovative medicines,there is a lack of evaluation methods that focus on the value of innovative medicine product lines,which will result in inaccurate evaluation of the investment value on such companies.In order to evaluate the investment value of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises,this paper grasps the business characteristics of those enterprises,basing on the improved rNPV cash flow discount model which is come from the income method.This paper proposes an innovative drug product line evaluation model to evaluate the investment value of the innovative drug business by analyzing the probability of listed companies' product line and average sales after listing.Basing on the P/E ratio method in the market law,the investment value of the generic drug business was calculated.This article selects Hengrui medicine company,a leading pharmaceutical company in the China's share market,as a case to analyze,and calculates the investment value of Hengrui medicine company by combining the above two methods.At the same time,the historical stock price data of Hengrui from 2014 to 2018 was used to test the accuracy of the method in this paper.The result shows that the accuracy of the investment valuation method is 86.21%.The investment value assessment method used in this paper also puts forward higher requirements for the company's information disclosure work.The information disclosure of Hengrui on the progress of new drug research is not timely and sufficient,and needs to be strengthened and improved.The estimated investment value of Hengrui in 29 th March 2019 is was compared with the stock price of that day,and it was found that the stock price was overvalued to some extent.In response to the company's stock price being temporarily overvalued,The author proposes methods and recommendations for the managements to enhance Hengrui's intrinsic value.This article also provides a clear analytical method in innovative pharmaceutical of listed companies in China's stock market,and provides a reference of investment value assessment method for individual investors in making investment decisions. |
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