The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Export Enterprise's Risk Taking

One of the key issues on enterprise decision-making is to improve the level of risk taking.The enterprise's risk-taking plays an very import part in the survival and development of an enterprise,nevertheless,the ability of the enterprise innovation and the country's growth level are largely influenced by the increasing risk-taking level of the enterprise.Therefore,the research on the enterprise level has attracted the attention of many scholars in recent years.Institutional environment greatly influences the enterprise's decision-making behavior by the institutional economics.Economic policy uncertainty has already become an unavoidable feature because of the complex macroeconomic environment.Although a large number of studies have been conducted on how economic policy uncertainty affects the investment timing and investment scale of enterprises in the theoretical or empirical literature,little attention has been paid to how enterprises make decisions on the risk level when faced with economic policy uncertainty.So,in an environment where economic policy is uncertain,how will the corporate risk taking behavior be affected? Does this influence have heterogeneity due to the change of enterprise characteristics? How to make measures when faced with economic policy uncertainty for the perspective of government and enterprises?Based on China Industry Business Performance Database and Tai'an Database,data are completely collected.Then data are processed and regressed via excel 2010 and stata15.1 to figure out the influence between economic policy uncertainty and enterprises risk-taking level.According to Baker,In this thesis,Economic Policy Uncertainty Index are used to present economic policy uncertainty.Since it is the most new way of measuring the economic policy uncertainty and is widely used by most of the scholars.Most scholars use the rolling standard deviation of the return on total assets in the next five years to represent the level of enterprise risk taking Z risk index is the representative of the enterprises risk-taking level.Due to the limitations of the data obtained in this paper,the author uses the difference between the Z bankruptcy index and the maximum and minimum value of the return on total assets to measure the enterprises risk-taking level.Results show that the economic policy uncertainty increase the corporate risk taking;but this effect only exists in the local enterprises,and it's insignificant in the foreign-owned enterprises;Further heterogenicity studies show that the positive impactof the economic policy uncertainty only exist in large-scale enterprises rather than small-scale enterprises;This impact exist both in High export intensive enterprises and low export intensive enterprises.At the end of this paper,some suggestions are discussed from the perspective of government and enterprises.The government should pay attention to the potential impact of policy adjustment on enterprise operation and maintain the chronicity and stability of policy when carrying out macro-control functions.When faced with economic policy uncertainty,enterprises should keep a clear mind and reasonably judge the future policy trend.