A Study On The Impact Of Housing Price Changes On Enterprise Leverage Rate

In August 2003,the State Council promulgated the "Notice on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market",which regards the real estate industry as the pillar industry of the national economy and proposes that promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market is a powerful measure to maintain the sustained,rapid and healthy development of the national economy.As an important driving force for China's economic development,the real estate industry contributed 12.7% of its gross national product in 2009-2017.During this period,the government successively issued real estate regulation and control policies,but real estate prices continue to grow faster.In the background of rising house prices,enterprises have increased their debt capacity through mortgage guarantee channels,resulting in increasing leverage.Since the financial crisis in 2008,China's non-financial corporate liabilities have been characterized by high proportion and rapid growth.Therefore,this thesis uses the non-financial enterprise leverage ratio as the entry point,and uses the relevant data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2003-2017 to match the real estate price data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China,the thesis uses the fixed effect model to empirically study the impact of housing price changes on corporate leverage.Through the above research,this thesis mainly draws the following conclusions: First,the rise of house prices will drive the increase of property collateral prices,which promote the increase of corporate lending capacity,eventually the leverage increased;Second,with the condition of the sample is divided according to the nature of equity,it is found that the impact of housing prices on the leverage ratio of private enterprises is significantly positive.However,due to the high average leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises,there is not much room for further increase on leverage ratio,resulting in the impact of housing prices on the leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises is not significant;Third,with the division of stateowned enterprises according to high and low leverage ratios,it is found that housing prices and low leverage ratio state-owned enterprises have a positive correlation,housing prices have no significant impact on high leverage state-owned enterprises;Fourth,the sample is divided into enterprises in the eastern,central and western regions according to the economic development level of the registered place.The house price has a positive correlation with the leverage ratio of enterprises in the eastern and central regions of China,and there is no significant relationship with the leverage ratio of enterprises in the western region.The innovation of this thesis is mainly reflected in two aspects.On the one hand,with regard to the study of house price changes,collateral value and corporate relations,domestic literature is mostly concentrated on enterprise investment and financing,enterprise innovation,etc.The research on corporate leverage ratio is mainly limited to real estate enterprises.For awareness of the liability risks of non-financial enterprises,this thesis is focusing on how changes in house prices will affect the non-financial corporate leverage ratio.On the other hand,based on the factors such as political priority financing and regional economic development level,the thesis conducts a sub-sample study from two ideas,one is state-owned enterprises and private enterprises,the other is the eastern,central and western ideas.It also conducts in-depth discussions on state-owned enterprises' high and low leverage,and enriches the research on the influence mechanism of macro factors on the leverage ratio of micro-enterprises.It is of great significance to promote the de-leverage work for non-financial enterprises in China in the background of housing price changes,especially for the state-owned enterprises.