| For a long time,China's residential sector has maintained the characteristics of high savings rate and low debt rate.Since 2008,stimulated by the 4 trillion fiscal policy,the central bank's balance sheet has expanded rapidly,and the scale of domestic social financing has expanded rapidly.The amount of renminbi loans has supported the total amount of social financing,and the leverage of all domestic sectors has risen linearly.Government and enterprise clusters,represented by infrastructure investment,real estate consumption as the core,and heavy industries and heavy industries relying on upstream industries,have increased their leverage,forming a structure and system that uses excessive debt to drive the economy.After 2015,in the process of non-financial corporate deleveraging and accelerating real estate destocking,the leverage ratio of the residential sector has soared.With the overall level of China's residential sector leverage ratio unmatched in emerging economies and some provinces and cities have It has increased to a higher level.In 2019,the People 's Bank of China released the “China Financial Stability News” showing that the rising leverage of the household sector has exerted a certain squeeze on consumption.At present,the regulatory authorities have clearly put forward the need to implement "no housing and speculation" to prevent capital from flowing into the real estate market in an illegal manner and curb the excessive growth of residents' leverage.Through a review of relevant literature,it was found that previous studies have shown that rising house prices are closely related to rising household leverage.From this point of view,this article analyzes the effect of housing prices on the leverage of the residential sector on the basis of the theory of household consumption and the theory of the credit-asset price cycle.Combined with the reality of regional differentiation in the current leverage ratio of China's residential sector,four hypotheses are proposed.Assumption 1: Control other conditions unchanged,house prices have a significant positive effect on residents' leverage ratio;Assumption 2: Control other conditions remain,house prices in the eastern region have a positive impact on residents' leverage ratios,and changes in house prices affect residents' leverage ratios Sensitivity is different in eastern,central,and western provinces;Hypothesis 3: Controlling other conditions remain unchanged,and housing prices have different effects on residents leverage in areas with different levels of financial development;Hypothesis 4: Controlling other conditions remain unchanged,housing prices affect different social security income regions Resident leverage has different effects.Using 2014-2018 panel data from 29 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China,and using a two-way fixed-effects model,the relationship between housing prices and the leverage ratio of the residential sector was subjected to full-sample regression and sub-sample regression.The main conclusions are as follows: In the full sample regression,the other conditions are kept unchanged,and the overall housing price has a significant positive impact on the level of residents 'leverage.Second: There is a certain difference in the effect of housing prices on the residents' leverage ratio.Leverage has a significant positive effect,and the effect of housing prices on residents 'leverage in the central and western regions is not significant.Third: Only in areas with low social security income ratios,housing prices have a significant positive effect on residents' leverage.An increase in the level of social security income will weaken this effect.Fourth: Only in areas with low social security income ratios,housing prices have a significant positive effect on the leverage ratio of residents,and an increase in the level of social security income ratios will weaken this effect.effect.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical test of this paper,relevant policy suggestions are put forward. |
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