Research On The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Corporate Cash Dividend

In the face of uncertain environment,the company is,why and how to adjust its own dividend policy? This has been a subject of extensive research for a long time.In recent years,as one of the important external environments faced by enterprises,the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies has received more extensive attention.During the financial crisis,the level of policy uncertainty in major countries has risen sharply.During the transition period,China's economy is facing a special institutional background.The market system is imperfect and the legal protection of property rights is weak.The government not only has the motivation but the ability to intervene in economic activities(e.g.the government can adopt a series of monetary policies,fiscal policies,and industry policies,tax policies,policy controls,regional revitalization plans,and the Five-Year Plan to intervene in economic activities).More seriously,these policies may be subject to frequent adjustments.Therefore,the business environment of enterprises often faces greater policy uncertainty,and this kind of policy uncertainty will directly affect the behavioral decisions of the relevant microenterprises.In the face of uncertain macroeconomic policies,how will companies adjust their own dividend policies? This paper believes that China's special institutional background leads to a deeper influence of macroeconomic policies on the micro-subjects,which provides an ideal experimental venue for testing the relationship between the two.Therefore,the study of the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate cash dividend policy has certain theoretical and practical significance for understanding the dividend policy of Chinese listed companies and expanding the interaction between macro and micro perspectives.Based on this,this paper uses the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2003-2016 as a research sample to do theoretical analysis and empirical test.The study finds that: First,when the degree of uncertainty in the economic policy facing by the company increases,the company will dynamically adjust its own dividend policy,that is,it will reduce the cash dividend payment willingness and reduce the payment level.Second,there is a difference in the nature of property rights between economic policy uncertainties and corporate cash dividends.Compared with non-state-owned enterprises,this role will be stronger in state-owned enterprises.Third,the life cycle of the company will also affect the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the cash dividend policy.The growth constraints faced by growth companies will be more severe and the negative relationship will be stronger than the maturity period and the recession.Finally,to further analyze the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate cash dividend policy,this article further analyzes the dynamic adjustment of cash dividends,market adjustment of dividend adjustment,and the mechanism of action between the two.It is further found that economic policy uncertainty also has a negative impact on the dynamics of cash dividends,the company's cash dividend distribution under uncertain circumstances has received active market response,the uncertainty of economic policies affects the dividend payment decision mainly through two cost mechanisms: financing constraints and commissioning agents.In order to make the conclusion of the study more robust,this paper also uses a new method of measuring variables,changing the regression model about cash dividend payment level,and the IV-2SLS method to test the robustness.Finally,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations: First,the government should maintain the stability and continuity of the policy on a macro level,making China's policy supervision more transparent,predictable and fair.Secondly,the government should strengthen the level of information disclosure before and after the introduction of the policy,and make full use of the spread of the authoritative media so that the market fully anticipates the policy direction and reduces the degree of wait-and-see attitude of economic participation.Third,the government should work hard to build a smoother,multi-channel financing environment and work hard to ease the financing constraints that enterprises face.Finally,for the enterprise itself,in the case of increasingly uncertain external environment,an emergency management system should be established to improve its ability to resist risks.The research in this paper expands the research on the interaction between macroeconomic policies and micro-enterprise financial decision-making behavior,enriches the literature on the determinants of dividend policy and the economic consequences of economic policy uncertainty,and also eases the endogenous problems in the traditional research between uncertainty and dividend policy to some extent.