Economic Policy Uncertainty And Corporate Cash Dividend Distribution

The impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on the production and operation activities of microeconomic entities cannot be ignored,and it is also increasingly concerned by government departments and scholars since the international financial crisis in 2008.This paper takes China's economic policy uncertainty as the starting point,based on the economic policy uncertainty index compiled by Baker S R & Bloom N(2013)scholars.And this paper takes the semi-annual data of non-financial listed companies on the main board,small and medium-sized boards of China from 2009 to the first half of 2019 as samples,using non-equilibrium panel regression model to study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate cash dividend distribution.It also analyzes the moderating effects of corporate financing constraints,the nature of corporate equity and entrepreneurial confidence on this effect based on prioritized financing theory,resource effect and hollowing-out effect of property rights,trade-off theory.Finally,based on the real option theory and the O-H-A effect theory,the sample is divided into optimistic and pessimistic expectation groups through the index of entrepreneur confidence index,and the intermediary role of cash and investment in the transmission process is analyzed.The research in this article shows that:(1)The uncertainty of economic policy has a significant negative impact on the distribution of cash dividends;(2)The elasticity of the level of cash dividend distribution to policy uncertainty is positively related to the degree of financing constraints faced by enterprises;(3)The elasticity of the cash dividend distribution level to policy uncertainty is affected by the nature of the enterprise and is more obvious in state-owned enterprises;(4)The negative elasticity of the level of cash dividend distribution to policy uncertainty is also affected by the level of entrepreneur confidence.The higher the level of entrepreneur confidence,the lower the reduction amount of cash dividend distribution of the enterprise;(5)In terms of the mechanism,when the enterprise households are pessimistic about uncertainty,the above-mentioned negative impact is mainly caused by the increase in corporate liquidity demand;While when entrepreneurs are optimistic,the above-mentioned negative impact is mainly caused by the increase in corporate investment demand.The above results indicate that the government should pay attention to market expected management when making macroeconomic decisions,and improving policy transparency and predictability.Simultaneously,easing corporate financing constraints,expanding financing channels,promoting reform of state-owned enterprises and fair market competition are meaningful ways.The above measures help mitigate the negative effect of economic policy uncertainty on the level of cash dividend distribution of enterprises,increase the level of cash dividends raised by enterprises,and promote the healthy development of the capital market.