Study On Default Risk Of Infrastructure Income Right Securitization

In recent years,with the rapid development of ABS in China,its role in promoting the economic and financial development of our country has been increasingly valued by relevant institutions.During the 13 th five-year plan period,China will further increase infrastructure construction.Due to the large capital demand and long construction period of infrastructure,ABS has gradually become an important financing mode for infrastructure construction.However,due to the late start of ABS in our country,the ABS market is not mature enough.There has seen a few defaults in ABS market.This paper first introduces the basic principle of infrastructure revenue asset-backed securitization,and analyzes the development status of Chinese infrastructure revenue asset-backed securitization,including the issuance status,key points and development prospects.Then,the first ABS default event in China--" The Dacheng West Yellow River Bridge Asset-backed Securitization " is introduced in detail,and the reasons for ABS default are analyzed as follows: first,the growth rate of macro economy slows down and various macroeconomic indicators decline;Second,the economic indicators of Inner Mongolia province declines and its raw coal output also declines;Third,there is overcapacity in coal industry and CCMCI decreases;Fourth,the concentration degree of basic assets is too high and its cash flow forecast is too much;The original right holder has the risk of fund confusion and the project revenue accounts is for a high proportion of its total income;The business condition of the guarantee institution deteriorates and it is unable to undertake the guarantee obligation;The project manager has some moral hazard and does not fulfill the management obligation.The rating agencies were too optimistic and did not follow up and update their ratings.Finally,based on the analysis of the reasons for default case,this paper puts forward the following suggestions.First,the original right holder must improve their own operational capacity and strengthen the management of the capital pool.Second,the government should accelerate the cultivation of mature guarantee institutions and enhance the effectiveness of guarantee.Third,the government should improve the asset management level of the program manager,and promote the program manager to strengthen duration management;Fourth,the accounting firm should integrate various factors to ensure the accurate and objective forecast of cash flow;Fifth,the government should establish and improve the credit rating system and enhance the independence of rating agencies.Sixth,the regulators should perfect the information disclosure system and establish the default handling mechanism.Seventh,investors must arise risk prevention awareness and improve risk identification ability,and keep tracking the management of ABS.