Research On Credit Risk Of Water City Investment Bond Based On Multivariate Logistic Model

In recent years,with the increasingly stricter regulatory policies of the urban investment industry,coupled with the fact that the previously issued urban investment bonds have gradually entered the repayment period,the huge stock of debts has great risks.From the perspective of the entire bond market,the number and amount of bond defaults in 2017 were 35 and 33.8 billion yuan respectively.In 2018,it jumped to 120 and 117.9 billion yuan,and the default amount increased by 248.82%.The city investment enterprises are currently in the transitional stage of market-oriented transformation,and there have been many credit risk incidents.It is well known that there are "SCP001 partial breach of contract of the Sixth Corps of the 17 th Corps","Giessen","Yunnan Stateowned","Yongtai Energy" Events such as “Tsujin Municipality” have caused great concern in the market.Due to the different industries in which the city investment company is engaged,the company's operating structure and financial status are different.The risk factors faced by the city's investment bonds in different industries are also different.Therefore,the risk analysis of the entire city investment bond cannot be carried out in a general way.As a category of urban investment bonds,water-based city investment bonds are mainly used for municipal water supply,sewage treatment,water conservancy projects,etc.It is of great significance to national infrastructure construction projects and people's livelihood projects,so it is necessary to face them.The study of credit risk can also provide a reference for investors.This paper takes the risk of water-based city investment as the research object,and adopts the research method combining case analysis and empirical analysis.Firstly,it summarizes the related concepts of urban investment bonds,sorts out its development status,and analyzes the credit risk of urban investment bonds from various dimensions based on the commonality.Secondly,the introduction of “18 Lu Public GN001”,based on the individuality perspective,identifies the credit risk factors of the water-based city investment debt,the financial aspect of the issuer,and the external support level of the local government.Finally,on the basis of case analysis,159 samples of water-like city investment bonds were selected to construct a multivariate logistic regression model,and an empirical analysis was carried out on the credit risk of water-based city investment bonds.The analysis results showed that the issuer's profitability and cash-capture ability were released.Financial status such as solvency,operational capacity,bond guarantee effectiveness,and local financial strength significantly affect the credit risk of waterbased city investment bonds.Reducing the credit risk of water-based city investment bonds and protecting the interests of investors not only requires the city investment company to improve its operational strength,but also properly handle its own debts,and the regulatory agencies need to make up their positions in time.