Research On The Relationship Between RMB Onshore And Offshore Markets

In recent years,along with the deepening of China’s influence in global economic and trade,the settlement of RMB has become more and more extensive,and the links between the RMB and the offshore market have become closer.It is the focus of China’s financial reform to unblock the channels in the offshore market and build a higher-level and closer cooperation between the RMB and offshore markets.On March 22,2018,the United States launched the "301 Trade Survey",and the trade war against China began.The RMB foreign exchange was affected by the trade war and continued to fall.As a window for the Mainland’s foreign trade,Hong Kong has implemented a linked exchange rate system linked to the US dollar,which has also been deeply affected by this trade.Under this background,the analysis of the linkage relationship between onshore and Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the marketization of the RMB exchange rate and preventing financial risks.There are many studies on the RMB in the offshore market,but mainly focus on the impact between the onshore interest rate,or the impact on the exchange rate on the shore.The article is based on the interest rate parity theorem,from the relationship between the onshore exchange rate and the offshore interest rate.From the perspective of the transmission channel and influencing factors between the onshore market and the offshore market;combining theory with empirical evidence,using Eviews software to correspond to the period of the hibor and RMB exchange rates from 2016 to 2018,using Unit root test,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to determine the influenceand the degree of different data.The empirical results show that the on-the-spot spot exchange rate(including the one-week forward exchange rate)does not have Granger causality for the same period Hong Kong interbank lending rate,while the onshore long-term exchange rate(one-year period)and the same period of Hong Kong There is also no relationship between the offshore interest rates.The one-month RMB forward exchange rate and the six-month forward RMB exchange rate are unilaterally affected by the Hong Kong interbank lending rate for the same period;the 3-month RMB forward exchange rate and the 3-month forward RMB exchange rate exist two-way guidance relationship.Based on the above research,the article concludes that it should continue to promote the marketization of the RMB exchange rate,appropriately relax the exchange rate fluctuations;improve the RMB return mechanism,increase the RMB open capital project;and at the same time,develop the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong to a higher level;Improve China’s ability to regulate,respond to,and deal with financial risks.