| With the implementation of ‘Economic Reform and Open up' policy and its deepening,China's economy has experienced an unprecedented development and become a real economic power.Real estate industry,as a vital component to the whole national economy,has been enlarging its scale continuously,which boosted China's economic development greatly.However,behind the rapid development,China's real estate industry still has certain deficiencies in terms of industrial structure,organizational form and so on.The competitiveness and operational efficiency of the entire real estate industry are not strong enough when comparing with developed countries.Under the ‘new normal' economic development and in the process of transforming the form of economic development to pursuing the connotation of development,as an important industry among national economy,what kind of position does real estate industry have? What kind of relationship does it have with other industry? Whether it can still promote national economy's development and how is its input-output efficiency? All mentioned issues are gradually being concerned by government,scholars and stakeholders.In order to conduct input-output research about China's real estate industry from two perspectives,both static and dynamic,on forward and backward inter-industry linkages,its position in national economy,its impacts to other sectors and its input-output efficiency:At first,this paper reviewed and sorted out related articles on industry association and efficiency evaluation of real estate industry.Through reading related literatures at home and abroad,the status quo and achievement of related research was analyzed,which provided a solid foundation for subsequent research of this paper.Then,based on the research of literature reviews,the theories of industrial relevance and efficiency were sorted and illustrated from their definitions,origins and evolutions and contents.And on the basis of reasonable theoretical support,the input-output analysis method,three-stage DEA and Malmquist Index model applied in this paper were briefly described.After setting up the theoretical foundation,empirical research about inter-industrial relevance,output multiplier,price ripple effect and input-output efficiency of China's real estate industry were conducted by applying input-output analysis method,three-stage DEA and Malmquist Index model according to the definition of real estate industry in ?ISIC Rev 4.0? and its input-output data acquired from WIOD database.And the following research results were concluded:(1)Through calculating and analyzing the forward and backward linkages between China's real estate industry and other industries,it is found that the forward and backward linkages of real estate industry are both less than 1,indicating that its ability of forward driving and backward pulling are relatively low to some extent and there is a down-trend speaking of backward pulling ability.When putting the results of forward and backward linkages together and making analysis,it can be drew that China's real estate industry could be regarded as an independent industry when comparing some others.At the same time,compared with developed nations,there is a certain gap in terms of real estate industry's linkages.(2)By computing and analyzing the output multiplier of China's real estate industry,it is discovered that the output multiplier of China's real estate industry has decreased from 1.7875 in 2000 to 1.3974 in 2014,with an average of 1.5203,indicating that to satisfy 1 US$ demand from real estate industry,the total supply from other industries to real estate industry is shrinking.In other words,the stimulation and promotion of real estate industry to national economy is diminishing.Moreover,this kind of supply is mainly concentrated in the tertiary industries,meaning that the relationship between real estate industry and the tertiary industries is stronger than that of the primary and secondary industries.While compared with developed nations,the output multiplier of China's real estate industry is lower and the inducing effect on production is weaker.There is still some room for China to make improvements.(3)After calculating and analyzing the price ripple effect of China's real estate industry,it is unveiled that when the price of China's real estate production changes,this kind of change can affect almost all sectors within the whole national economy and mainly affects the tertiary industries,for instance,insurance,finance,retail and wholesale industries.When plotting the curve of China's real estate price ripple effect,it is displayed that there is a large low-potential platform,in line with the ‘price stability platform theory',implying that the development of China's real estate is relatively stable,coordinated well with national economy and developing healthily and stably.(4)The static input-output efficiency analysis of China's real estate industry through three-stage DEA method shows that the input-output efficiency is relatively lower than that of developed countries and there do exists a gap.The average technical efficiency of China's real estate industry is 0.84,however,overall,there is an uptrend on technical efficiency.And by discuss technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency together,it is found that the deficiency of scale is the main reason leading to the low technical efficiency of China's real estate industry.(5)The dynamic calculation results of input-output efficiency of China's real estate industry via Malmquist Index model demonstrate that the total factor productivity(TFP)increases by 4.8%,the technical efficiency increases by 2.9%,the technological progress index increases by 2.8%,pure technical efficiency grows by 2.5% and scale efficiency increases by 0.3% per year on average.And scale efficiency is one of the main factors limiting the improvement of the total factor production efficiency of China's real estate industry.At last,based on the empirical analysis of inter-industrial linkages and input-output efficiency about China's real estate industry,relevant specific suggestions on several problems found were put forward,hoping to promote the development of China's real estate,even national economy,in a health way and in high efficiency.Afterwards,research limitations of this research and prospects for future research are expounded. |
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