An Analysis Of Industrial Linkages In Guangxi Based On Hypothetical Extraction Method

The main content of this paper is to analyze the industrial linkages of Guangxi by using hypothetical extraction method(HEM)and identify its key industries.The regional input-output model can systematically reflect the economic linkages among various industries in the region and is an effective tool for studying regional economy.Based on the input-output model,this paper analyzes the status quo of Guangxi's industrial linkages,probing into the interdependence of industries in Guangxi from a deeper level and economic positioning of various industries,serving for the realization of such macro goals as "the Belt and Road" and supply-side reform.The main content of this paper can be divided into four parts: First,introduce the theory used and conduct a literature review.Among them,the literature review section introduces in turn what is the industrial linkages,how to measure the industrial linkages,and the application of this measure;the article as the main research content,focusing on analysis of the status of industrial linkages in Guangxi.Second,measure the industrial linkages in Guangxi based on the traditional methods such as the Leontief model,such as calculating the influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient of each industry.Based on the input-output table of 42 departments in Guangxi in 2012,the direct consumption coefficient and total consumption coefficient matrix were calculated,and the consumption of each department was analyzed.The results show that in the high-tech industry(manufacturing industry),the instrumentation department should not have the conditions to grow into the leading high-tech industry in Guangxi's economy.Compared to high-tech industries(manufacturing),the transport,storage and postal sectors have strong penetration of many types of industries and strong integration with various sectors.The cross-analysis of influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient shows that the primary industry and the tertiary industry as a whole have no stimulating effect on Guangxi's economy.Manufacturing industry in Guangxi economic performance is more stimulating effect,rather than to promote the role.Thirdly,it uses the hypothetical extraction method to measure the industrial relations in Guangxi.This method can make up for the defect that the traditional method does not consider the scale effect.The analysis of influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient of 42 departments in Guangxi showed that there is a department with a lower total output and a higher sensitivity coefficient,which is inconsistent with economic facts.The Leontief inverse matrix obtained from the competitive input-output tables is not reasonable when imported products enter the manufacturing process.This is because most of the consumption of imported products takes place outside the region and will not have a ripple effect on the production of various departments within the region.Therefore,in order to avoid exaggerating the importance of each department,the departments that account for the large proportion of the outwardly-adjusted products need to split the competitive input-output table into non-competitive forms and conduct further studies.Based on the non-competitive input-output table,HEM analyzes the industrial relations in Guangxi.The results show that due to the size of each department,based on the HEM measurement,the forward linkage ratio and the backward linkage ratio is more economical than the traditional algorithm Facts,such as metal products,machinery and equipment repair services(24)and so on.Fourth,comparing the results obtained from the two measurement methods,and based on this,the key industries in Guangxi are identified and analyzed,and the research conclusions are given.Compared with the traditional method,HEM estimates the industrial association results more in line with economic facts,based on the results to identify key industries in Guangxi.Using the entropy method to objectively empower and carry out the comprehensive evaluation on the level of industrial linkage intensity.And then the idea of the average social level is introduced into the threshold to define the key departments.The departments whose comprehensive evaluation scores exceed the threshold are the key industrial departments.A total of 14 key divisions were identified.The comprehensive evaluation scores of the three departments of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery products(1),metal smelting and rolling products(14)and building(28)are much higher than the social average level.This shows that compared with other departments,the three departments have stronger industrial linkages and are crucial to the economic development of Guangxi and should give priority to them.