Study On The Impact Of Credit Term Structure On Economic Fluctuation

Economic growth and economic fluctuation are two major themes of macroeconomic research.The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has brought people's attention to economic fluctuations.In the process of economic development,the stable operation of the economy is very important.Once there is intense economic fluctuation,it will inevitably cause serious consequences for the whole economy,and even trigger economic crisis.With the rise of currency non-neutrality,it is believed that money is an important cause of economic fluctuation in the short term.In China,bank credit plays an important role in financing.It is an important source of funds for the development of real economy,and also an important link in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.From the perspective of monetary policy transmission channels,there are two mainly channels,namely,monetary transmission channels and credit transmission channels.However,due to the poor controllability of monetary transmission channels in China,the monetary transmission channels are blocked.Credit transmission channels have become the main channel of monetary policy transmission in China.So credit has become an important factor affecting economic fluctuation.The study of credit is not only limited to the total amount of credit,but also includes credit structure.At present,China's economic development is facing structural transformation.It is particularly necessary to study the relationship between credit and economic fluctuation from a structural perspective.From the aspect of credit term structure,short-term loans and medium-long term loans have different investment directions and uses,which will have different impacts on the economy.Therefore,whether the credit term structure is reasonable or not has an important impact on economic fluctuation.The purpose of this paper is to find the reasonable interval of credit term structure by analyzing the impact of credit term structure on economic fluctuation,and to put forward policy suggestions for smoothing economic fluctuation in terms of credit term structure.Firstly,this paper reviews the relevant literature of scholars at home and abroad,and draws up the preliminary ideas and research contents of its own research.Secondly,it briefly introduces the basic concepts and related theories of the research object,and makes a theoretical analysis of the impact of credit term structure on economic fluctuation,and combs out the impact path of credit term structure on economic growth fluctuation and price level fluctuation.Thirdly,this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the changes of credit term structure and economic fluctuations in China,and preliminarily examines the correlation between them.Fourthly,based on the economic and financial data of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government,this paper makes a quantitative analysis from the macro level,and examines the effect of credit on economic fluctuation from the term Structure.Finally,the conclusions of this study are summarized and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.The final conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Short-term loans can promote economic growth in the short run,while medium-long term loans can promote economic growth in the long run.(2)Short-term loans have a slight effect on the price level in the short term;medium-long term loans have a positive effect on the price level in the short term and a negative effect on the price level in the long term.(3)Credit term structure has three threshold effects on the fluctuation of economic growth,and a single threshold effect on the fluctuation of price level.(4)When the ratio of short-term loans to medium-long term loans is between 0.86 and 2.16,the credit term structure has a mitigating effect on economic fluctuations.Based on the conclusions of this study,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations.(1)Credit policy and credit supervision should pay attention to the credit term structure to promote the steady development of the economy.(2)Credit supervision authorities and commercial banks should strictly control the flow of credit funds and prevent major financial risks.(3)Commercial banks should improve the allocation efficiency of credit funds and actively promote the reform of China's economic system through credit investment.