A Quantitative Model For A Supply Chain System With Consideration Of Demand Fluctuation And Production Disruption

Supply chain disruption is a common form of supply chain risk,which usually refers to the fact that the supply chain can not meet the minimum requirement of the enterprise's business activities in a certain period of time due to unexpected human events or natural disasters.In recent years,the frequent occurrence of supply chain disruption accidents not only brings huge economic losses to enterprises,but also has a significant impact on the brand and reputation of enterprises,and even causes significant losses to other enterprises in the supply chain.When supply chain disruption occurs,we must adjust the original supply chain plan,and redesign the supply chain plan in the future,and select the appropriate supply chain recovery strategy to minimize the losses caused by the supply chain disruption accident.The key to formulate the supply chain recovery plan is to construct a quantitative supply chain disruption recovery model and formulate the optimal supply chain recovery plan by solving the model.At present,the research of supply chain disruption management has become one of the hot topics in supply chain management.Making a reasonable recovery plan after supply chain disruption can effectively make the supply chain recover quickly and reduce the impact of supply chain disruption on the entire supply chain system.However,most of the existing researches on supply chain disruption management usually consider only one type of disruption factors and carry out disruption management after disruption accidents.In this paper,we optimize the existing three-echelon supply chain production disruption recovery model.In addition,we discuss two different types of disruption accidents,production disruption and demand fluctuation,in the research of disruption management.The concrete contents are as follows:(1)Based on the existing production disruption recovery model of three-echelon supply chain,we propose an optimization recovery model for the supply chain,which considers the uncertainty of disruption duration,to reduce the losses and accelerate the recovery of supply chain.A series of triangular fuzzy numbers and related probabilities are used to evaluate the disruption duration at the beginning of the disruption,to make full use of the remaining capacity of other normal operation factories in the disruption stage and reduce the losses caused by the disruption.Firstly,we analyze the shortcomings of the existing three-echelon supply chain production disruption recovery model,and illustrate the optimization of the model compared with the existing model.Secondly,we describe the problems in detail,and construct the corresponding model,and propose the corresponding heuristic algorithm.Finally,the optimization model is further divided by using the example analysis.We compare the optimization model with the existing three-echelon supply chain production disruption recovery model.The result shows that the optimization model is better in shortening the recovery process and reducing the recovery cost.(2)We refine the problem of interruption recovery when production disruption and demand fluctuation occur simultaneously in a two-echelon supply chain,and construct a research framework to solve such problem,and further develop it into a systematic research system with theoretical significance and practical application.Aiming at the characteristics of production disruption and demand fluctuation in a two-echelon supply chain,the cost functions of producers and retailers are analyzed,and a supply chain disruption recovery model aiming at maximizing profit in the recovery time window is constructed.In the process of constructing the model,firstly,the production disruption and demand fluctuation are classified,and the supply chain recovery plan in each case is analyzed.Then,the cost of producers and retailers in this case is analyzed in detail.In the recovery time window,a supply chain disruption recovery model is constructed with the goal of maximizing profits.The model can help to reduce the loss caused by disruption and quickly recover the supply chain when the situation occurs in enterprise supply chain.(3)A heuristic algorithm is proposed to solve the supply chain recovery model considering demand fluctuation and production disruption.In this algorithm,the characteristics of the model and the nature of the model are analyzed.The recovery strategies are considered under different conditions,and the heuristic algorithm for solving the model is proposed.In order to verify the effect and applicability of the heuristic algorithm,the results for solving a large number of examples by using the heuristic and genetic algorithm are compared.Moreover,in order to explore the impact of the important parameters in the model on the total profit,sensitivity analysis of these important parameters is carried out,and the analysis results are explained.We focus on the optimization of the existing three-echelon supply chain production disruption recovery model,and propose a supply chain recovery optimization model based on uncertain disruption duration,which speeds up the process of supply chain recovery and reduces the losses caused by production disruption.Moreover,we also study the recovery of supply chain disruption when demand fluctuation and production disruption occur simultaneously,and construct a corresponding disruption recovery model,so as to obtain the supply chain recovery plan in such a situation.This research enriches the relevant theories of supply chain disruption management,and the disruption problems and research ideas described in this paper.This paper can provide a better reference for the research of supply chain disruption management.The theoretical research methods proposed in this paper not only enrich the theoretical methods of related issues,but also lay a good foundation for further research on supply chain management when multiple types of disruptions occur.